The June reading of the textile and apparel professional market sentiment index sends a clear signal: the overall market is warming, but the temperature gap along the supply chain is widening.
The manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points from May; the merchant sentiment index came in at 50.07, up 0.34 points. Both hover near the 50-point boom-bust line, but the former remains below the threshold while the latter barely crosses it. On the surface, this looks like a modest recovery, but a breakdown of the sub-indices reveals a growing profit mismatch between upstream and downstream players.
Market Side: Volume Flat, Traffic Recovering
From the manager perspective, the June total business volume index was flat month-on-month, while the logistics shipment volume index edged up 0.64 points and the foot traffic index rose by the same margin. These three core indicators suggest that physical market transaction volumes have not expanded significantly, but the recovery in foot traffic is a positive marginal change.
The store opening rate index increased by 0.32 points, and the rental index rose by 0.33 points, indicating that vacancy rates are narrowing and market operators' bargaining power over tenants has slightly recovered. The e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, above the boom-bust line, suggesting that offline market operators are accelerating their penetration into online channels.
These data points point to one conclusion: the physical trading floor of professional markets remains stable, but incremental growth is coming more from online-offline integration than from pure store expansion.
Merchant Side: Sales Recover, But Profits Shrink
Although the merchant sentiment index crossed 50, its internal structure is far more complex than the manager side. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 points from the previous month, indicating that shipment volumes are increasing. However, the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 points, and the profitability index, despite rising 0.89 points to 49.86, remained below the boom-bust line.
More volume sold, but at lower prices, squeezing profits. This is a classic 'volume up, price down' pattern—end-consumer demand is recovering, but as channel inventories are being cleared, merchants have to trade volume for price. The comprehensive cost index edged down 0.19 points, meaning operating cost pressure is rising marginally, further eroding already thin margins.
The inventory index stood at exactly 50.00, up 0.21 points, suggesting a slight easing of inventory pressure. But whether this improvement is due to active destocking or passive absorption needs to be verified against sales trends in the coming months.
E-commerce: A Structural Bright Spot
June's e-commerce sales data is the brightest part of the entire report. 22.58% of professional market managers reported an increase in e-commerce sales, up 6.45 points from May; 9.79% of merchants reported an increase, up 8.42 points. Both the manager and merchant e-commerce sales indices rebounded above 50.
This data indicates that online channels are becoming an important outlet for merchants to alleviate the pressure of weak offline traffic and digest inventory. For wholesale-oriented professional markets, e-commerce is not a substitute but an incremental channel. Merchants that have earlier invested in livestreaming, mini-programs, or B2B platforms are now in a more advantageous position in this recovery.
Forward-Looking Indices: Confidence Rises for July, But Watch for Over-Expectation
The manager forward-looking sentiment index for July is 50.32, down 2.91 points from May; the merchant forward-looking index is 50.84, up 0.70 points. All four forward-looking indices are above 50, indicating that the industry is broadly optimistic about the short-term outlook.
However, the notable month-on-month decline in manager confidence may reflect market operators' caution about the sustainability of end-consumer demand in the second half of the year. The rise in merchant forward-looking indices is more likely driven by short-term sentiment from improved June sales. If actual July sales data fail to meet expectations, price and profit pressures could intensify again.