China's textile and apparel foreign trade delivered a seemingly stable but deeply divided performance in the first half of 2026. According to dollar-denominated data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14, total exports from January to June reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year. Behind this figure lies a stark contrast between upstream and downstream sectors: exports of raw materials and intermediate products grew 3.5%, while finished garment exports edged down 0.7%.
June Turning Point: Autumn-Winter Restocking Drives Unexpected Surge
The most notable signal emerged in June. Monthly textile and apparel exports hit $29.27 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year. This rebound was no coincidence—overseas buyers accelerated pre-season orders for autumn and winter, releasing concentrated demand for fabrics and yarns. Textile exports reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month; apparel exports hit $15.75 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year and surging 21% month-on-month.
In renminbi terms, cumulative exports in H1 totaled 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, indicating significant currency erosion on profit margins. However, June renminbi-denominated data also rebounded, with exports reaching 200.25 billion yuan, rising both year-on-year and month-on-month, with the fabric segment performing particularly well. This suggests genuine overseas demand recovery, but actual corporate revenue remains squeezed by exchange rate fluctuations.
Market Divergence: US Stands Out, Traditional Markets Falter
A review of export performance in the first five months reveals a fragmented global demand landscape. The US market emerged as the biggest growth driver, with export growth to the US expanding 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The logic is clear: the US-China summit stabilized bilateral expectations, and with overseas brands largely completing inventory destocking, buyers have resumed procurement from Chinese supply chains.
Conversely, traditional mature markets such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea continued to weaken. The EU is mired in inflation driven by high energy costs, dampening consumer apparel spending. ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea face dual pressures from regional tensions and rising energy prices, reducing their imports from China. Additionally, the temporary easing of Middle East tensions and falling shipping costs provided short-term support for June's overall export recovery.
Product Structure: Upstream Resilience, Garment Pressure Deepens
Detailed category data for the first five months vividly illustrates the divergent fortunes of upstream and downstream sectors. Yarn exports grew 6.6% year-on-year, fabric exports edged down only 0.5%, and finished textile products rose 2.6%. In contrast, apparel and clothing accessories exports fell 1.6%. The pressure on garment OEM is far greater than on upstream segments.
The root cause lies in the shift in overseas brand operating strategies. Brands now adopt lean inventory management, reducing large long-term garment orders and instead frequently purchasing semi-finished products like yarns and fabrics. China's one-stop capabilities—from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing and finishing to finished products—offer delivery efficiency and quality that are hard to replicate elsewhere. This is the core reason for upstream resilience. Garment OEM, with low entry barriers, faces intense international capacity diversion and price competition, a trend unlikely to reverse soon.
External Challenges and Industrial Confidence
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the global trade environment remains complex. The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to suffer from high energy prices, persistent inflation, and tightening monetary policies, all of which will weaken consumption growth. Weak recovery in end-consumer demand in Europe and the US, rising production costs, and fragmentation of global trade patterns will continue to test industry players.
However, the H1 2026 trajectory has clearly pointed the way forward. The era of low-price, volume-driven exports is over. Complete supply chains, product innovation, and diversified global market layouts are the core tools for navigating the cycle. June's export rebound injects confidence and validates the real dependence of overseas markets on China's supply chain.