Cost-Demand Dynamics: Signals from the Weekend Price-Volume Surge in Shengze-Jiaxing Polyester Yarn Market

During the weekend of July 18-19, the light textile raw material markets in Shengze and Jiaxing experienced a notable price rally. Polyester filament yarn (POY, DTY, FDY) prices were raised across the board, and transaction volumes surpassed those of the previous weekend. This shift is not an isolated event; it reflects a combination of rising international crude oil prices, strong upstream raw material cost support, and structural shifts in downstream demand.

Cost-Driven Pricing Logic

The immediate catalyst was the consecutive rise in crude oil prices. After a price increase on the night of July 17, crude oil surged again on July 18, providing strong cost support for PTA and MEG. For polyester manufacturers, this upstream pressure quickly translated into price hikes for filament yarn. As long as oil prices remain elevated, producers will maintain a strong inclination to raise prices.

However, whether these hikes can be sustained depends on downstream weaving mills' ability to absorb them. The current summer lull has reduced operating rates in Shengze and Jiaxing, limiting demand-side tolerance for higher prices.

Product Differentiation: Fine Denier and Bright Yarn Stand Out

Despite the overall uptrend, sales performance varied significantly by product type. In semi-dull DTY, specifications like 75D/72F, 75D/144F, 120D/192F, and 150D/288F sold well, indicating a preference for fine denier and multi-filament products. FDY super-fine and fine denier multi-filament series continued to be popular, with demand expanding for 20D, 30D, 40D/72F, 50D/72F, 75D/72F, and 75D/144F.

Bright FDY, especially in deniers above 300D, saw rising sales, driven by demand for oxford fabric and decorative textiles. This suggests a recovery in home textiles and outdoor goods. While POY for texturing saw price increases, downstream buyers became cautious about chasing higher prices. Nevertheless, bright POY 75D/72F and 150D/288F maintained strong shipment volumes, highlighting the resilience of differentiated products.

Yarn Market: Structural Demand and Expectations

In the yarn segment, cotton yarn prices remained stable, with 32s and J40s seeing good demand for air-jet cotton-nylon fabrics, while other specifications traded quietly. T/C yarn prices were steady with minor adjustments, and T/R yarn volumes were low. Pure polyester yarn prices rose slightly, but overall sales were moderate, though 45s outperformed other counts.

Viscose rayon yarn saw some activity in 10s and 30s, but the market overall remained calm. Staple fiber prices were steady at around 14,200 yuan/ton. The outlook suggests a moderate downward adjustment for rayon yarn, influenced by weak downstream demand and volatile raw material costs.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor crude oil and PTA/MEG futures closely. When cost support is clear, consider locking in polyester yarn orders early to avoid further price increases. - Fine denier and bright products are in high demand; suppliers may hold firm on pricing. Prioritize mills with differentiated capacity when comparing quotes. - Rayon yarn may face downward adjustments; slow down procurement and wait for price stabilization before restocking.

For Mills - Despite low operating rates, fine denier FDY and POY for texturing show strong shipments. Consider shifting product mix toward higher-value differentiated items. - Bright FDY above 300D is gaining traction; oxford fabric and decorative textile orders may continue. Stock up on corresponding raw materials in advance. - Pure polyester yarn 45s outperforms other counts; adjust production scheduling to meet air-jet loom demand.