In mid-July, the imported cotton yarn market witnessed a rare broad-based price surge across almost all origins. From Vietnam to India, Pakistan to Uzbekistan, virtually every major exporter raised their offers over the past two weeks. However, the magnitude of increases, shipment pace, and regional performance are diverging sharply—Vietnam yarn is quietly grabbing market share from Indian and Pakistani yarns through cost competitiveness and logistics advantages.
Price Surge: High-count yarns lead, low-count lag
According to feedback from cotton yarn traders and fabric mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian, the latest round of price hikes began in early July, driven by three factors: a rebound in ICE cotton futures, broad month-on-month recovery in textile and apparel exports across Southeast Asia, and consecutive significant increases in Indian domestic S-6 spot prices and CCI auction floor prices.
Among all specifications, C32S and above ring-spun, compact, and combed yarns saw the most pronounced FOB, CNF, and CIF price adjustments. Low-count open-end and coarse yarns experienced relatively smaller changes. This indicates that the mid-to-high-end knitted and woven fabric segment is bearing greater raw material cost pressure. The low-count yarn market, already highly competitive with thin margins, naturally has limited room for price increases.
Notably, Indian second- and third-tier cotton yarn offers and quotations have decreased markedly in July. These yarns previously sold well on price, but now high domestic cotton prices combined with external price hikes have eroded their cost advantage, significantly reducing traders' willingness to book orders.
Vietnam Yarn's Winning Formula: Slow price adjustment + land transport
Within the overall price surge, Vietnam yarn stands out. A major light textile import-export company in Shaoxing reported that inquiries and shipments of Vietnam yarn in early to mid-July significantly outperformed Indian, Pakistani, and Uzbek yarns.
Two key reasons explain this. First, Vietnamese mills have been slower to adjust their export prices and the magnitude of increases is smaller than those from India and Pakistan. For C40S and below, Vietnam yarn's cost-performance advantage remains strong. For cost-sensitive fabric mills and garment factories, this price gap is enough to shift procurement decisions.
Second, geopolitical factors have amplified Vietnam's logistics edge. After the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks and repeated mutual strikes, shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz have soared, driving up oil, energy, and chemical prices, as well as ocean freight. Mills in India, Bangladesh, and Malaysia have been forced to pass on higher transport costs in their CNF and CIF offers. Vietnam yarn, which relies heavily on road and rail transport into China, avoids these maritime uncertainties, offering greater price stability compared to sea-dependent competitors.
Port inventories decline: Reduced arrivals plus 'pre-export rush'
On the inventory side, arrivals of Uzbek cotton yarn, Pakistani siro yarn, Taiwan open-end yarn, and Indonesian/Vietnamese polyester-cotton yarn have weakened over the past two weeks. At the same time, some coastal textile and garment enterprises are engaging in short-term 'pre-export rush' to frontload shipments before potential trade policy changes, accelerating the drawdown of port inventories.
This sustained decline in port stocks provides short-term price support. However, caution is warranted: the inventory drop is more a result of supply contraction and a temporary demand pulse than a genuine recovery in end-consumption. Once the 'pre-export rush' window closes and higher-priced offshore yarns arrive, inventories could rebuild.