Chemical Fiber Raw Material Cost Pressure Continues, Polyester Filament Yarn Prices Rise in Shengze and Jiaxing Markets

The strong cost pressure is reshaping the short-term price landscape of the Jiangsu-Zhejiang chemical fiber market. On July 18-19, the light textile raw material markets in Shengze and Jiaxing saw notable changes: driven by the rise in international crude oil prices on the night of the 17th and a significant surge in oil futures on the 18th, the cost support for polymer raw materials suddenly strengthened. Polyester factories subsequently raised their polyester filament yarn (PFY) quotes, pushing the overall market into an upward channel. Notably, trading volumes during this weekend were significantly higher than the previous week, indicating a recovery in market sentiment.

Product Differentiation: Strong Demand for Fine Denier Multi-Filament and Bright Coarse Denier Yarns

Looking at the specific product categories, the current uptrend is not a broad-based rally but shows clear structural characteristics. In the semi-dull DTY segment, fine denier multi-filament specifications such as 75D/72F, 75D/144F, 120D/192F, and 150D/288F sold well, reflecting the downstream preference for high-filament-count, soft-handling fabrics. For FDY, ultra-fine and fine denier multi-filament varieties continued to be popular, with demand increasing for 20D, 30D, 40D/72F, 50D/72F, 75D/72F, and 75D/144F. A noteworthy signal is the emergence of FDY 130D/36F as a new driver, mainly due to the volume increase in long-filament oxford fabric orders. As the primary fabric for luggage, tents, and outdoor products, the trading activity of oxford fabric often serves as a barometer for consumer confidence recovery.

Bright FDY coarse and fine denier series also performed well, especially coarse denier specifications above 300D, with sales rising, currently used for oxford fabric and decorative materials. Fully dull FDY 40D/48F, 48D/48F, and 66D/48F also entered the active sales list, indicating continued growth in demand for differentiated and functional fabrics. For POY, although prices for draw-texturing grade POY increased, downstream buying sentiment turned cautious. However, bright POY 75D/72F and 150D/288F saw large shipment volumes, while POY for intermingling remained stable.

Yarn Market Divergence: Cotton Yarn Stable, Rayon Yarn Faces Adjustment

Compared to the uptrend in polyester filament yarn, the yarn market was relatively calm. On July 18-19, cotton yarn prices were stable, with demand for 32s and J40s being relatively good, mainly used in air-jet nylon-cotton fabrics, while other specifications traded generally. Polyester-cotton yarn prices adjusted steadily, and polyester-viscose yarn prices were temporarily stable but with low trading volumes. Pure polyester yarn prices rose slightly, but overall sales were average, with 45s pure polyester yarn outperforming other specifications. Polyester staple fiber prices were range-bound, with the center price for 1.56*38 cotton-type staple fiber at around 7,700 RMB/ton.

The rayon yarn market showed divergence: 10s and 30s specifications had some trading activity, but other specifications were quiet, with prices largely unchanged. Viscose staple fiber prices were also in an adjustment phase, with the center price around 14,200 RMB/ton. Given the weak demand in the current off-season, rayon yarn is expected to undergo moderate adjustments, with potential for price declines.

Cost vs. Demand: Short-Term Uptrend, But Cautious Buying Advised

The core contradiction in the current market lies in the divergence between cost and demand. In the short term, support from PTA and MEG is strong, with prices showing upward momentum, giving polyester factories a strong incentive to raise prices. Driven by cost, the PFY market is likely to maintain a slight upward trend. However, it cannot be ignored that the fabric market is currently in the midsummer off-season, with overall weaving operating rates insufficient. Downstream capacity to absorb raw materials is limited. Although weekend trading was active, it was more of a restocking move by end-users in anticipation of price increases, rather than sustained growth in actual orders.

For buyers, this means raw material costs will continue to rise in the short term, but the risk of chasing prices is also accumulating. If international oil prices pull back or polyester raw material prices ease, PFY prices could quickly correct. Therefore, it is recommended that buyers adopt a batch-by-batch, small-lot purchasing strategy based on their own order cycles, avoiding large-scale stockpiling at high prices.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Closely monitor international oil prices and PTA/MEG futures. When signs of a cost-side correction emerge, consider slowing down purchasing pace. - Prioritize locking in orders for active varieties like fine denier multi-filament and bright coarse denier yarns, as these have stronger demand support and limited downside risk. - For standard varieties, adopt a "buy as needed" strategy to avoid high inventory costs from chasing prices.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Include raw material price fluctuation clauses in export quotations, or use short-term price locking mechanisms to hedge against dual risks of exchange rates and raw materials. - Monitor recovery signals in export-advantage categories like long-filament oxford fabric and decorative fabrics, and communicate capacity scheduling with upstream mills early. - For products like cotton yarn and rayon yarn with stable or expected price adjustments, extend negotiation cycles to secure better purchasing prices.