Acrylonitrile Leads, Textile Raw Material Prices Diverge: What Does Mid-July Market Signal?

In the third week of July 2026, the price change list for bulk textile commodities revealed a critical signal: the trends of upstream chemical raw materials and downstream cotton textile categories are diverging sharply. Acrylonitrile surged over 5% in a single week, PTA and polyester staple fiber rose by 1.48% and 1.30% respectively, while cotton yarn 32S and 21S fell by 0.60% and 0.57%, and raw silk edged down 0.14%. This structural divergence of 'strong chemicals, weak cotton' cannot be explained by simple seasonal fluctuations.

Cost Push vs. Demand Weakness

Looking at year-on-year data, the current rally is not isolated. Acrylonitrile is up 22.29% YoY, PTA up 25.68%, spandex up 22.34%, and polyester DTY up 15.38%. These numbers point to a common logic: tight global supply of upstream petrochemical raw materials. Acrylonitrile is constrained by strong demand from the ABS chain and some plant maintenance, pushing its price center upward. PTA is supported by high crude oil prices and tight PX supply.

But downstream cotton yarn prices are weakening. Cotton yarn 32S fell 0.60% weekly, cotton yarn 21S fell 0.57%, and their YoY gains of only 6.23% and 6.71% are far below upstream raw material increases. This indicates that the recovery of final garment orders has not kept pace with raw material price hikes. Weaving mills face a 'flour more expensive than bread' dilemma, forcing them to cut operating rates or delay purchases.

Polyester and Nylon: Moderate Pass-Through

Unlike the sharp rise in acrylonitrile, polyester and nylon categories showed moderate follow-up gains. Polyester DTY rose 0.75% weekly, polyester POY up 0.69%, nylon POY up 0.74%, and nylon DTY up 0.25%. This data suggests that cost pass-through in the polymerization and spinning stage is still relatively smooth, but is already straining. The 1.30% rise in polyester staple fiber includes some speculative restocking demand rather than purely from final orders.

Notably, cotton prices rose only 0.13%, and the 15.31% YoY gain is also lower than most chemical fiber raw materials. This reflects stable production expectations for Xinjiang cotton and low purchasing willingness among cotton spinning mills, with the market in a stalemate of 'price without volume.'

Viscose and Spandex: Hidden Concerns in Sideways Moves

Viscose staple fiber, rayon yarn, and spandex prices were completely flat this week, with zero change. Viscose staple fiber is up 9.74% YoY, rayon yarn up only 4.06%, and spandex up 22.34%. Spandex's high YoY gain mainly stems from a low base in 2025, not strong current demand. The viscose chain faces dual pressure from rising dissolving pulp costs and sluggish rayon fabric orders, trapping prices in a narrow range.

Raw Silk: The Only YoY Decliner

Raw silk fell 0.14% this week and is down 10.34% YoY, making it the only commodity among monitored items to decline year-on-year. This directly points to recovered cocoon production, weak real silk garment exports, and increased substitution by chemical fibers. For silkworm farming regions like Guangxi and Zhejiang, this signal suggests downward pressure on autumn cocoon procurement prices in 2026.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Acrylonitrile-related items (e.g., acrylic yarn) still have room to rise in the short term; consider locking in Q3 contracts moderately in advance, but keep inventory cycles within 15 days to guard against sharp correction risks after a surge. - For cotton yarn procurement, adopt a 'small order, fast turnaround' strategy, using the current price dip to build positions in batches, avoiding large stockpiles before order clarity. - Polyester staple fiber is highly correlated with PTA; if crude oil prices retreat, wait for a pullback to within 1% weekly gain before restocking.

For Mills - Weaving mills should prioritize short, small orders to reduce reliance on long orders, mitigating cost accounting risks from raw material price volatility. - Consider adjusting product mix by increasing the proportion of polyester-nylon blended fabrics, reducing dependence on weak categories like cotton yarn and raw silk, leveraging the relative strength of chemical fibers to pass on some costs. - Closely monitor final garment brand replenishment pace in August; if orders fall short of expectations, promptly reduce operating rates to avoid finished goods inventory buildup.