The June 2026 market sentiment data paints a complex picture: while overall operations in textile and apparel professional markets are recovering, profit pressures on merchants remain unresolved. This data, monitored by the China National Textile and Apparel Council's Circulation Branch, reveals structural divergence in the industry's recovery.
Dual Sentiment Rise, but Modest
In June, the national textile and apparel professional market manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points from May; the merchant sentiment index was 50.07, up 0.34 percentage points. Both indices moved closer to the 50 boom-bust line, but the manager index remains below 50, indicating that while the market is improving, it has not yet fully entered expansion territory.
Breaking down the sub-indices, the manager-level total business volume index remained flat at 49.03, while logistics shipment volume and foot traffic indices both rose 0.64 points to 49.03. The store opening rate index also edged up 0.32 points to 49.35. These figures suggest that market footfall and logistics activities are recovering, but transaction volumes have yet to show significant growth.
Merchant-level indicators present a more mixed picture. The sales volume index rose 1.03 points to 50.14, returning to expansion territory, but the average selling price index fell 0.22 points to 49.30. The profitability index, though up 0.89 points, remains in contraction at 49.86. This points to a volume-over-price strategy: merchants are selling more but not making more profit.
Costs and Inventory: Shifting Pressures and Easing
Merchant cost pressures increased in June. 6.99% of merchants reported higher operating costs, up 6.99 percentage points from May, while the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, still above 50, indicating manageable but worsening cost conditions. On the inventory front, 10.49% of merchants reduced stock, and the inventory index rose 0.21 points to 50.00, suggesting some destocking relief.
This combination of marginally rising costs and inventory destocking sends different signals to buyers and factories. For fabric and apparel buyers, lower merchant inventory may signal restocking demand ahead, narrowing price negotiation room. For upstream factories, merchants' profit pressure could translate into squeezed order prices, compressing production margins.
E-commerce as a Stabilizer
E-commerce sales stood out in the June data. 22.58% of market managers reported increased online sales, up 6.45 points from May; on the merchant side, 9.79% saw e-commerce sales growth, up 8.42 points. Both e-commerce indices are above 50, indicating that online channels are becoming a significant growth driver for professional markets.
For traditional wholesale-oriented textile and apparel markets, rising e-commerce penetration is reshaping business models. The manager e-commerce index reached 51.61, and the merchant index was 50.49, both in expansion territory. This means that alongside the recovery in offline footfall, the incremental contribution from online channels cannot be ignored.
Outlook: Diverging Confidence Between Managers and Merchants
Expectations for July again diverge between managers and merchants. The manager outlook index fell 2.91 points from May to 50.32, while the merchant outlook index rose 0.70 points to 50.84. All four forward-looking indices remain above 50, indicating overall confidence, but managers are less optimistic about the near-term trajectory.
This divergence likely stems from different role-based perceptions of market rhythm. Managers focus on overall rent, store opening rates, and footfall, which are more influenced by seasonality and macroeconomics. Merchants, however, focus on their own sales and inventory turnover, and the June sales uptick has given them stronger confidence.