A clear dividing line is emerging between upstream cost pressures and downstream demand weakness in China's textile supply chain. In the third week of July 2026 (July 13-17), bulk commodity price monitoring data shows acrylonitrile surged 5.11% week-on-week, leading all tracked textile products, followed by PTA (up 1.48%) and polyester staple fiber (up 1.30%). In contrast, cotton yarn 32S and 21S fell 0.60% and 0.57% respectively. The widening gap reflects fundamentally different supply-demand dynamics between chemical fiber and cotton-based segments.
Upstream Strength: Cost-Push Rally in Acrylonitrile and PTA
Acrylonitrile prices jumped from 9,133 yuan/ton at the start of the week to 9,600 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 22.29%. This rally is not demand-driven but stems from rising feedstock costs and temporary supply tightening due to plant maintenance. PTA followed closely with a 1.48% weekly gain and a 25.68% year-on-year surge. Polyester staple fiber and polyester DTY also rose 1.30% and 0.75% respectively, with year-on-year gains exceeding 12%. For buyers, this means chemical fiber procurement costs are being systematically pushed higher with no near-term correction in sight.
Notably, spandex prices remained flat this week but posted a 22.34% year-on-year increase, indicating that accumulated cost pressures have not been released. Viscose staple fiber and polyester yarn also stayed stable, creating a 'high-price stalemate' where mills refuse to cut prices and downstream buyers hesitate to place orders.
Cotton Yarn Under Pressure: Weak End-Demand Is the Root Cause
In stark contrast to chemical fiber gains, cotton yarn products continued to weaken. Cotton yarn 32S fell 0.60%, cotton yarn 21S dropped 0.57%, and raw silk edged down 0.14%. The decline is not due to lower raw material costs—cotton prices actually rose 0.13% this week with a 15.31% year-on-year increase—but rather reflects insufficient end-user orders forcing mills to cut prices and destock.
Feedback from industrial clusters in Nantong and Shengze indicates that current loom utilization rates are generally lower than last year, with grey fabric inventories remaining high. Fabric buyers are adopting a 'small order, fast turnaround' strategy, and large, long-term orders are scarce. Under these conditions, downward pressure on cotton yarn prices is unlikely to reverse in the near term and may even propagate upstream to cotton procurement.
Behind the Divergence: Imbalanced Profit Distribution
The core contradiction in today's market is that upstream chemical fiber costs are rising while downstream yarn and fabric demand is falling. This severely squeezes processing margins in the middle of the chain. The spread between polyester filament yarn and cotton yarn continues to narrow, with some spinning mills operating near breakeven. For foreign trade enterprises, the combination of yuan exchange rate volatility and raw material price uncertainty makes forward pricing extremely difficult.
Historical patterns suggest such divergence rarely lasts long. If end-user demand does not recover significantly within the next month, high chemical fiber prices may become unsustainable and face correction risk. Conversely, if autumn/winter orders materialize as expected, cotton yarn prices could stabilize and rebound by late August.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Chemical fiber materials (acrylonitrile, PTA, polyester staple fiber) are currently at high levels; purchase on a need-to basis and avoid heavy stockpiling. Monitor September plant maintenance schedules for further supply impacts. - Cotton yarn products show a clear downward trend; consider delaying procurement and negotiate floating price agreements with suppliers to hedge risk. - Watch for stabilization signals in viscose and spandex. These products have high year-on-year gains but low recent volatility, making them potential leading indicators for the next leg up or down.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Include raw material price adjustment clauses in contracts to prevent margin erosion from sudden spikes in acrylonitrile or PTA prices. - When quoting for European and U.S. autumn/winter orders, base prices on current cotton yarn levels with a 3%-5% discount to leave room for negotiation. - Demand for polyester products in Southeast Asian markets is relatively stable. Prioritize developing differentiated fabric orders for this region to avoid the domestic cotton yarn red ocean.
A period of market divergence is also a time for strategic recalibration. Companies that can quickly 'absorb the shock' through supply chain optimization and order structure upgrades will be best positioned to seize the initiative when the next market turning point arrives.