Acrylonitrile Leads with 5% Surge, Textile Raw Material Divergence Intensifies: Downstream Cotton Yarn Under Pressure vs. Chemical Fiber Chain Resilience

In mid-July 2026, the textile raw material market displayed a rare "top-heavy" pattern. Acrylonitrile led all monitored categories with a 5.11% weekly surge, followed by PTA and polyester staple fiber, which rose 1.48% and 1.30% respectively. In contrast, cotton yarn 32S and 21S fell 0.60% and 0.57%, while raw silk edged down 0.14%. The overall average change was merely 0.54%, indicating that the market is not experiencing a broad recovery but rather an intensifying tug-of-war between cost-push and demand weakness.

Chemical Fiber Raw Materials: Cost Pass-Through and Supply Disruptions

Acrylonitrile jumped to 9,600 yuan/ton in a single week, with a year-on-year increase of 22.29%. This surge is attributed to volatile upstream propylene prices and temporary supply tightness due to plant maintenance. Downstream acrylic fiber and ABS industries are facing rapidly accumulating cost pressure. PTA strengthened to 5,985.91 yuan/ton, up 25.68% YoY, mainly supported by high international crude oil prices and PX cost. Polyester staple fiber rose 1.30%, but polyester yarn prices remained unchanged, indicating that the price hike has not yet effectively passed through to the yarn stage, and weaving mills have limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Notably, the price changes for polyester filament yarns (DTY, POY, FDY) ranged from 0% to 0.75%, suggesting weaker momentum in the filament segment compared to staple fiber, raising doubts about the sustainability of subsequent orders.

Cotton Yarn Under Pressure: Weak Demand and Inventory Digestion

The decline in cotton yarn 32S and 21S is the most noteworthy negative signal this week. Despite a slight 0.13% increase in cotton lint prices, downstream cotton yarn weakened in the opposite direction, indicating that end-apparel demand for cotton products has not kept pace with rising raw material costs. Cotton yarn mills may be forced to cut prices to reduce inventory, especially for high-count yarn varieties facing greater sales pressure. Raw silk prices fell 10.34% year-on-year, extending the prolonged downturn in the silk sector and reflecting the still-fragile recovery of high-end silk consumption.

Nylon and Spandex: Relative Calm with Structural Opportunities

Nylon POY and DTY rose 0.74% and 0.25% respectively, with year-on-year increases between 9% and 11%, within the normal fluctuation range. Spandex prices remained flat at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, up 22.34% YoY and already at a multi-year high, prompting downstream stretch fabric buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were unchanged, indicating a temporary supply-demand balance in the regenerated cellulose fiber chain, though future movements in dissolving pulp prices warrant attention.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Acrylonitrile still has upside potential in the short term; acrylic fiber and ABS related companies are advised to lock in 2-3 weeks of inventory to avoid chasing prices. - During the cotton yarn price correction, consider moderate bottom-fishing, especially for regular 32S varieties, as demand is expected to pick up with the start of autumn/winter orders in August. - The narrowing price gap between polyester staple fiber and filament fiber may create opportunities to substitute staple fiber for filament in some applications, reducing raw material costs.

For Exporters - For orders to the US and Europe, consider adopting a "floating base price + monthly adjustment" clause to partially transfer the risk of raw material fluctuations (PTA, polyester staple fiber) to buyers. - Cotton yarn export quotes can be lowered by 2%-3% to win new orders, but a floor should be set based on exchange rate volatility. - Monitor the persistent low price of raw silk, which may open a procurement window for silk products; consider stockpiling for 2027 spring collection development.