On July 18-19, the light textile raw material markets in Shengze and Jiaxing once again signaled price hikes. Driven by rising international crude oil on the 17th and a surge in dark trading on the 18th, polyester filament yarn (PFY) saw another round of price increases, with weekend transaction volumes notably higher than the previous week. However, whether this uptrend can sustain is already a point of divergence within the industry—strong cost-side support is clashing with weak downstream demand during the summer off-season.
Cost-Driven Structural Divergence
Looking at specific product performance, the price hike is not broad-based but structurally driven toward finer denier and higher filament counts. In the FDY series, ultra-fine and fine-denier varieties such as 20D, 30D, 40D/72F, 50D/72F, 75D/72F, and 75D/144F saw significantly increased demand, reflecting a continued preference for lightweight and high-simulation fabrics downstream. The active sales of FDY 130D/36F are directly linked to the volume release of long-filament oxford fabric, which is experiencing seasonal recovery in outdoor luggage and tent applications.
Bright FDY thick and thin series also performed well, particularly specifications above 300D, which are mainly used for oxford fabric and decorative materials. This strength suggests that demand in industrial fabrics and home furnishing is taking over from apparel fabrics. In the DTY segment, multi-filament varieties like 75D/72F, 75D/144F, 120D/192F, and 150D/288F sold well, indicating decent processing margins in the draw-texturing sector. However, draw-texturing mills have become cautious about chasing POY price increases.
POY Faces Headwinds After Price Hikes
Notably, after POY prices rose, downstream buying enthusiasm waned significantly. This reflects the reality of low weaving operating rates—during the peak summer off-season, comprehensive loom utilization in Shengze and Jiaxing is estimated to have dropped to 60-70%, with some small and medium-sized mills reducing output or taking holidays. As the direct feedstock for draw-texturing, POY price increases risk inventory buildup if they cannot be smoothly passed to DTY and greige fabric.
Currently, bright POY 75D/72F and 150D/288F have large shipment volumes, but POY for interweaving applications remains stable, indicating that restocking demand for regular specifications is limited to just-in-time needs. Polyester plants, supported by rising PTA and MEG prices, are strongly inclined to raise prices, but whether short-term increases can be accepted by end users depends on the sustainability of greige fabric orders.
Yarn Market: Cotton Stable, Rayon Under Pressure
In contrast to the PFY uptrend, the yarn market is generally subdued. Cotton yarn prices are stable, with 32s and J40s seeing good demand due to jet-printed cotton-nylon fabric, but other specifications trade thinly. Polyester-cotton yarn prices are steady with minor adjustments, while polyester-viscose yarn volumes are low, suggesting a lack of catalysts for blends during the off-season.
Pure polyester yarn saw slight price increases, but overall sales are average, with only the 45s variety performing relatively well. Polyester staple fiber prices are consolidating around 7,700 yuan/ton, providing limited cost support. For rayon yarn, 10s and 30s are trading modestly, but other specifications remain quiet, with viscose staple fiber steady at around 14,200 yuan/ton. Industry data shows rayon yarn prices are largely unchanged, but the market expects moderate adjustments ahead, indicating potential destocking pressure in the viscose chain under cost and demand constraints.
Short-Term Outlook: Uptrend Continues but Room Limited
Overall, PFY is expected to maintain a pattern of small, gradual increases in the near term. Strong crude oil and polymer feedstock prices are the core drivers, and polyester plants are determined to pass on costs. However, low downstream weaving rates and lackluster end-order volumes will cap gains. In the next one to two weeks, PFY prices may rise in small steps of 50-100 yuan/ton per adjustment.
For yarn, cotton yarn will remain stable, pure polyester yarn may follow PFY upward slightly, but rayon yarn faces a higher probability of downward adjustment. For buyers, it is advisable to restock on a need-to basis and avoid chasing price hikes. For foreign trade firms, attention should be paid to the sustainability of long-filament oxford fabric orders and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and overseas demand changes on greige fabric orders.