In June 2026, the national textile and apparel specialized market manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-over-month, while the merchant sentiment index reached 50.07, a 0.34 percentage point increase. On the surface, both core indicators moved upward, suggesting the market is emerging from its earlier trough. However, a closer look at the sub-indices reveals an uneven recovery—improved foot traffic and store openings coexist with deteriorating merchant profitability, signaling a phase of structural adjustment.
Market-Side Recovery: Foot Traffic and Store Openings Improve
From the manager's perspective, positive signals in June were concentrated in operational activity. The logistics dispatch volume index and foot traffic index both rose 0.64 percentage points from May to 49.03, while the store opening rate index climbed 0.32 percentage points to 49.35. Although these indicators remain below the 50 boom-bust line, the marginal improvement is clear, indicating that offline transaction activity is recovering. Notably, the rent index remained in expansion territory at 50.65, up 0.33 percentage points, suggesting that market operators still have confidence in property values and have not resorted to widespread rent reductions.
However, the total business volume index was flat at 49.03, failing to follow the trend of foot traffic. This means that increased visitor numbers have not yet translated into higher transaction values, suggesting a "more browsing, less buying" pattern. For specialized markets that rely on wholesale volume, this disconnect between traffic and turnover is a cautionary signal.
Merchant-Side Divergence: Sales Edge Up, Profits Remain Squeezed
Merchant-level data paints a more complex picture. The June merchant sales index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points from May, re-entering expansion territory—a positive marginal change. However, the average selling price index fell 0.22 percentage points to 49.30, and the profit index, despite rising 0.89 percentage points to 49.86, remained below the boom-bust line.
The core reason for rising sales but falling profits lies in cost pressure. The comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 percentage points to 50.63. While still above 50, indicating relatively manageable cost pressure, the directional change is noteworthy. The inventory index rose 0.21 percentage points to 50.00, suggesting that destocking is slowing and merchants may be passively accumulating inventory. More direct pressure comes from pricing: 18.88% of merchants reported lower selling prices, a sharp increase of 12.03 percentage points from the previous month; 19.58% reported lower profits, up 8.62 percentage points.
This indicates that merchants are being forced to cut prices to clear inventory and compete for limited foot traffic. The recovery in the sales index is partly a "volume-for-price" trade-off at the expense of profit margins. This model is unsustainable; if costs continue to rise or demand weakens, merchant cash flows will face severe tests.
E-commerce as a Stabilizer, Not a Panacea
E-commerce sales were a rare bright spot in June. The manager e-commerce sales index stood at 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points month-over-month, while the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points, both stably in expansion territory. 22.58% of managers reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from May; 9.79% of merchants reported increased e-commerce sales, up 8.42 percentage points.
E-commerce channels are becoming an important tool for merchants to hedge against offline traffic fluctuations. However, it is important to note that the growth in e-commerce sales has not directly improved overall merchant profitability. Online channels often entail higher marketing costs and return rates. For wholesale-oriented merchants, online incremental sales may be a "low-margin, high-volume" business, sometimes requiring offline profits to subsidize online costs. E-commerce is a stabilizer, but not necessarily a profit engine.
Outlook and Industry Implications
Looking ahead to July, the manager forward-looking sentiment index is 50.32, down 2.91 percentage points from May, while the merchant forward-looking index is 50.84, up 0.70 percentage points. Managers are turning cautious, while merchants are relatively optimistic—this divergence itself reflects the temperature differences across different market segments. All four forward-looking indices are above 50, indicating that overall confidence remains, but marginal momentum has weakened.
In summary, the June 2026 sentiment data conveys three layers of industry signals:
- First, the offline ecosystem of specialized markets is undergoing a mild recovery, but the quality of recovery is low, driven mainly by foot traffic rather than higher average transaction values.
- Second, merchants face a "revenue growth without profit growth" dilemma, with intensified price competition, emerging cost pressures, and slowing inventory turnover.
- Third, e-commerce has become a mandatory channel, but relying solely on online channels cannot solve profitability issues. Merchants need to rebalance online and offline investments and optimize category mix and inventory management.
For buyers and foreign trade companies, the current environment calls for a focus on supply chain flexibility and cost control, rather than simply chasing low prices.