Acrylonitrile Leads, Cotton Yarn Under Pressure: The Industrial Logic Behind Textile Raw Material Price Divergence

In the third week of July 2026, a notable signal emerged in the textile raw material market: the price gap between rising and falling products is widening. According to public industry data, among 17 major monitored textile commodities, 8 rose and 3 fell, but the absolute magnitudes of gains and losses are asymmetric. Acrylonitrile surged 5.11% weekly to 9,600 yuan/ton, while cotton yarn 32S dropped 0.60% to 24,725 yuan/ton. This divergence is no coincidence—it points to different pressures across the supply chain.

Upstream Strength: The Petrochemical Chain's Pass-Through Effect

Acrylonitrile was the biggest gainer, jumping from 9,133 to 9,600 yuan/ton within a week, with a year-on-year increase of 22.29%. Its upstream materials, propylene and liquid ammonia, have strengthened due to international energy market volatility and domestic plant maintenance. Downstream sectors like acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and even carbon fiber are facing rising cost pressure. PTA rose 1.48% to 5,985.91 yuan/ton, up 25.68% year-on-year, driven by tight PX supply. Polyester staple fiber, DTY, and POY all followed, with gains between 0.69% and 1.30%. This indicates a cost-driven rally across the polyester chain.

Notably, nylon POY and nylon DTY rose only 0.74% and 0.25% respectively, much weaker than polyester, suggesting a more balanced supply-demand situation. Cotton prices edged up 0.13% to 17,729 yuan/ton, up 15.31% year-on-year, but far below petrochemical gains, reflecting a stagnant cotton market.

Downstream Weakness: Signals of Soft Demand

In stark contrast, cotton yarn and raw silk prices fell. Cotton yarn 32S dropped 0.60%, 21S fell 0.57%, and raw silk edged down 0.14%. The core reason is weak end-demand for apparel. It's the traditional low season, with weaving mills running at low utilization rates and only purchasing for immediate needs. Additionally, export restrictions on Xinjiang cotton continue to dampen overseas buying. With cotton prices stable and yarn prices falling, spinning margins are squeezed, potentially pushing small mills into losses.

Raw silk's year-on-year decline of 10.34% is the steepest among monitored items, reflecting ample cocoon supply and weak silk garment exports. For major sericulture regions like Guangxi and Zhejiang, sustained low prices may reduce farmers' enthusiasm, altering future supply patterns.

Industry Implications of the Divergence

This price wave offers several key takeaways. First, petrochemical-based raw material hikes are likely sustainable, driven by international energy trends and supply constraints, not speculation. Costs for polyester and acrylic may continue rising in H2. Second, cotton yarn weakness is unlikely to reverse soon, given slow destocking of apparel inventories and ongoing overseas uncertainties. Third, stable prices for viscose, spandex, and rayon yarn indicate a fragile equilibrium that could tip with any shock.

For the entire textile chain, an 'upstream up, downstream down' pattern is unhealthy. Inability to pass costs downstream means squeezed margins for processors, potentially accelerating industry consolidation.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Lock in long-term contracts for petrochemical-based raw materials: Acrylonitrile, PTA, and polyester staple fiber still have upside risk. Sign quarterly or semi-annual fixed-price agreements to hedge against short-term volatility. - Adopt a wait-and-see approach for cotton yarn: Prices are still trending down with no clear demand recovery. Maintain low inventories and purchase on a need-only basis, waiting for better entry points. - Explore substitute materials: When cotton yarn is expensive, evaluate polyester-cotton blends, viscose, or other alternatives to optimize fabric cost structures.

For Exporters - Adjust quotation validity periods: For orders using polyester or acrylic, shorten validity to 7-10 days and include raw material price adjustment clauses in contracts. - Watch profit margins on cotton yarn orders: If orders involve pure cotton yarns, pre-calculate the spread between raw material cost and selling price to avoid losses from falling yarn prices. - Monitor RMB exchange rate fluctuations: Combined with raw material volatility, currency shifts can further erode export profits. Consider using forward exchange contracts to lock in rates.