The textile sector presented a seemingly flat but internally turbulent price list on July 17. Industry data shows the overall average daily change for textile commodities was merely -0.01%, yet the divergence between categories hit a recent peak: acrylonitrile led with a 0.35% daily gain, while PTA fell 0.44%, a spread exceeding 0.7 percentage points. This 'fire and ice' pattern is no market noise but the result of converging upstream costs, downstream orders, and inventory cycles.
The seesaw effect in upstream raw materials
The most striking feature of this data set is the split in raw material pricing. Acrylonitrile continued its upward trend, reaching 9,600 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 22.29%. The rally is driven by two factors: concentrated plant maintenance globally, tightening supply, and resilient demand from downstream ABS resin and carbon fiber sectors. In contrast, PTA prices weakened, falling to 5,985.91 yuan/ton. Although still up 25.68% year-on-year, the short-term downtrend is clear. PTA's weakness is directly linked to crude oil price corrections and lower-than-expected operating rates at polyester plants, which slowed inventory digestion.
Polyester filament yarn varieties further illustrate this divergence. Polyester POY fell 0.23%, DTY edged down 0.07%, while FDY remained flat. This suggests that with weakening PTA cost support, filament yarn producers have begun to offer concessions to maintain sales. Polyester staple fiber, however, bucked the trend, rising 0.30% to 7,469.43 yuan/ton, up 12.73% year-on-year. The divergence between staple and filament reflects different downstream applications: staple fiber is more used in nonwovens and fillings, where demand has recently improved due to hygiene product and home textile restocking.
Uneven performance across fiber categories
In the fiber segment, natural and chemical fibers showed contrasting signals. Cotton prices edged down 0.02% to 17,729.33 yuan/ton, up 15.31% year-on-year, remaining in a high consolidation range. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat, indicating that cost transmission in the cotton spinning sector is temporarily blocked. Downstream weaving mills are cautious about accepting high-priced cotton yarn, keeping operating rates conservative and shifting inventory to traders.
Raw silk prices continued to weaken, falling 0.14% to 425,100 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 10.34% – the only category showing a negative annual comparison. This persistent weakness is linked to sluggish global luxury consumption, especially in Europe, combined with stable silkworm cocoon output. For enterprises in the silk chain, current prices are approaching cost lines in some production areas; without a demand recovery, production cuts are possible.
Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were unchanged, but up 9.74% and 4.06% year-on-year respectively. The viscose chain is in a weak equilibrium, with stable dissolving pulp costs and average rayon yarn sales, lacking catalysts for a breakout. Spandex prices also held at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, up 22.34% year-on-year, but resistance to high prices is growing. Spandex producers had raised prices due to higher PTMEG costs, but downstream warp knitting and covering yarn customers are pushing back, leading to hidden discounts.
Nylon series (DTY, FDY, POY) prices were all flat. This stability stems from balanced caprolactam supply and nylon yarn operating rates around 70%, with no significant inventory pressure or order gaps. This 'no rise, no fall' state is unusual amid overall divergence, suggesting the nylon segment is in a temporary comfort zone.
Implications for procurement and inventory management
The current price divergence demands more nuanced procurement and inventory strategies. For buyers, different categories present distinct windows: acrylonitrile still has upside risk but a correction is possible; PTA and polyester filament yarn may continue to weaken, allowing delayed procurement or point-price locking.
From a chain transmission perspective, upstream divergence will eventually impact greige and finished fabrics. Polyester staple fiber price hikes could raise nonwoven costs, while PTA declines may improve margins for polyester filament fabric producers. Foreign trade companies should focus on specific raw material price trends when quoting, rather than relying on broad indices.