The semi-annual report card for China's textile and garment foreign trade in H1 2026 contains two key signals: the overall volume held steady, but internal divergence was stark.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, total textile and garment exports from January to June reached $145.96 billion, up a marginal 1.4% year-on-year, maintaining a historically high level. However, the real focus for the industry is the June monthly export surge of 14.3% month-on-month to $29.27 billion—indicating that overseas autumn-winter stocking has officially begun, with demand for upstream fabrics and yarns leading the recovery.
Structural Divergence: Upstream Thrives, Downstream Struggles
The core characteristic of the H1 export data is a clear separation between upstream and downstream performance. Textile exports reached $73 billion, up 3.5% YoY; while garment exports stood at $72.96 billion, down 0.7% YoY. Although the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year, profit pressure on finished garments has not eased.
By category, yarn exports grew 6.6% YoY, fabric exports dipped only 0.5%, and textile products rose 2.6%. In contrast, garments and clothing accessories fell 1.6%. The industry implication is clear: overseas brands are shifting toward a "low inventory, high frequency" procurement model, reducing large long-term orders for finished garments and instead sourcing semi-finished products more frequently. China, as the world's only textile chain offering integrated services from chemical fibers, spinning, dyeing, to finished products, matches this new demand structure—this is the structural support for sustained upstream growth.
Conversely, the garment OEM track has a relatively low entry barrier, with international capacity shifting faster to Southeast Asia and South Asia, compounded by domestic price competition. The long-term pressure on garment exports is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
June Rebound: Autumn-Winter Stocking and Exchange Rate Dividend
The magnitude of the June rebound exceeded industry expectations. Textile exports in June reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% YoY and 7.4% MoM; garment exports stood at $15.75 billion, up 3.2% YoY and a sharp 21% MoM. The concentrated release of garment replenishment orders in June indicates that overseas channel inventories have fallen to low levels, and buyers are preparing ahead for the autumn-winter sales season.
In RMB terms, cumulative textile and garment exports in H1 were 1.01222 trillion yuan, down 2.2% YoY, but June alone saw 200.25 billion yuan, with both YoY and MoM increases. Exchange rate fluctuations have somewhat distorted RMB-denominated export data, but the June MoM growth confirms that genuine overseas procurement demand is recovering.
Overseas Markets: US Alone Supports, EU Weakens
Export destination data for the first five months reveals significant divergence in global demand. The US market was the largest growth driver in H1, with China's textile and garment export growth to the US expanding by 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Following the China-US summit, bilateral relationship expectations stabilized, and with overseas brand inventory destocking largely complete, buyers increased procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continued to weaken. The EU is mired in inflation caused by high energy costs, dampening consumer willingness to purchase apparel; ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, also saw reduced textile and garment imports from China. The temporary easing of the Middle East situation and falling shipping costs were short-term positive factors for the June recovery.
Industry Backbone: Irreplaceability of the Complete Chain
The H1 data repeatedly confirms one judgment: China's complete textile industry chain is currently irreplaceable by any single country or region globally. From chemical fiber raw materials to spinning, weaving, dyeing, finishing, and final processing, the collaborative efficiency and quality control capabilities of the entire chain form the industry's core moat.
This is why upstream yarn and fabric exports can maintain growth while garment OEM continues to pressure. Overseas brands, while seeking to reduce dependence on a single source, still cannot do without the efficiency and quality of China's supply chain—this contradiction ultimately manifests in order structure: semi-finished product orders increase, finished product orders decrease.
H2 Outlook: External Challenges and Internal Transformation
The World Bank recently warned that the global economy will continue to face the triple pressure of rising energy prices, high inflation, and tightening overseas monetary policy. Weak recovery in end-consumer demand in Europe and the US, persistently high production costs, and capacity competition from fragmented global trade patterns will continue to test industry players.
However, the H1 data has already pointed the way: the era of relying on low prices and volume is unsustainable. A complete supply chain, product innovation, and diversified global market layout are the core tools for navigating the cycle. While external uncertainties remain in H2, supported by the deep-rooted domestic textile industry foundation, companies that adjust product structures and market strategies in a timely manner can still maintain stable operation of the industry's foreign trade base.