13,600 CNY/ton—that's the industry benchmark price for Nylon POY as of July 20, 2026. This figure sits right at the midpoint of the past year's price range: 2,300 CNY above the low of 11,300 CNY/ton and 3,350 CNY below the high of 16,950 CNY/ton. With a one-year median of 14,125 CNY/ton, what does the current price imply?
The Median Anchor in Price Cycles
Annual statistics show Nylon POY swinging from 11,300 to 16,950 CNY/ton over the past 12 months—a 50% amplitude. The current 13,600 CNY level is approximately 3.7% below the median. Notably, early July saw 13,650 CNY/ton, meaning the monthly decline is only 0.37%, indicating price consolidation in a narrow range.
This 'neither high nor low' pattern often signals an imminent directional move. Historically, prolonged hovering near the median either reflects supply-demand rebalancing or a tug-of-war between raw material cost support and weak downstream demand. The current scenario leans toward the latter.
Cost Side: Caprolactam Transmission
Nylon POY's direct upstream is caprolactam (CPL). In H1 2026, CPL prices ranged 11,000-12,000 CNY/ton, lower year-on-year. With an industry average consumption ratio of 1.03-1.05, the current processing margin for POY is about 2,000-2,500 CNY/ton—near the breakeven line.
This means a 5% or more swing in CPL prices would force POY prices to follow. Recent international crude oil fluctuations between $70-80/barrel provide some cost support for CPL, but not enough to drive a breakout.
Demand Side: Off-Season vs. Export Resilience
July is a traditional textile off-season, with downstream weaving mill operating rates at 60%-70%, limiting POY procurement to essential restocking. On the export front, shipments of nylon filament and fabrics to Southeast and South Asia remain stable, with some mills reporting orders booked through September.
Domestically, demand from sportswear and outdoor gear segments is slowing, but substitution effects in functional fabrics persist—nylon's abrasion resistance and elasticity continue to erode polyester's share in high-end workwear and luggage fabrics.
Capacity Additions: A Supply Variable
China plans to add about 300,000 tons of new Nylon POY capacity in 2026, mainly in Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. By July, roughly 150,000 tons have entered trial production, with actual release at ~60%. This incremental supply will gradually impact the market in H2, exerting downward pressure.
However, new capacity is skewed toward differentiated products (e.g., micro-denier, flame-retardant, antibacterial nylon), not fully commoditized competition. This means generic POY may face oversupply, while high-value-added variants retain pricing power.