At 13,600 yuan per ton, the benchmark price of nylon POY on July 20, 2026, appears stable with a mere 0.37% decline from the beginning of the month. However, a year-long perspective reveals a dramatic fluctuation from a low of 11,300 yuan to a peak of 16,950 yuan, an amplitude exceeding 50%. This volatility is not mere market noise but a reflection of upstream cost pressures, downstream demand weakness, and intense bargaining across the chemical fiber chain.
Mid-Range Pricing Masks Deep Industry Struggles
According to publicly available industry data, the average daily price of nylon POY over the past year was approximately 12,845 yuan/ton. The current price is slightly above this average but far below the annual high. The median price stands at 14,125 yuan/ton, with the current price about 3.7% below the median. The top deviation is 3,350 yuan, and the bottom deviation is 2,300 yuan. This indicates that even at the so-called 'mid-range,' price elasticity remains high, posing significant decision-making risks for both buyers and producers.
This wide range directly reflects the mismatch between supply and demand. The primary raw material for nylon POY is caprolactam, whose price is heavily influenced by crude oil and pure benzene markets. From late 2025 to early 2026, international oil price fluctuations and maintenance shutdowns at some domestic caprolactam plants pushed up raw material costs, driving nylon POY prices to a yearly high of 16,950 yuan/ton. However, weaker-than-expected domestic demand in the textile and apparel sector, coupled with export order volatility due to overseas inventory cycles, made the high price unsustainable, leading to a subsequent decline.
Industrial Cluster Response: Weaving Mills in Keqiao and Shengze Under Pressure
The sharp price swings in nylon POY have directly impacted downstream weaving and texturing enterprises. In core chemical fiber fabric production areas like Keqiao (Zhejiang) and Shengze (Jiangsu), companies report repeated profit compression this year. When raw material prices spike, fabric prices cannot keep pace, squeezing processing margins. When material prices plummet, high-cost inventories face devaluation risks.
Some large-scale weaving mills have adjusted procurement strategies, reducing single-batch purchase volumes by 20%-30% and shifting to a 'buy-as-needed' short-cycle approach. While this reduces inventory risk, it destabilizes upstream POY factory orders, further exacerbating price volatility. For small and medium-sized texturing plants, cash flow pressure is particularly acute, with some forced to reduce operating rates to manage liquidity.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission: A Dual Squeeze from Costs and Demand
From an industry chain transmission logic, nylon POY price fluctuations are not isolated. The upstream caprolactam price briefly exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton in Q4 2025 but gradually retreated in 2026 due to new capacity releases. The weakening cost support is a core reason for the decline from the 16,950 yuan/ton high.
Meanwhile, demand-side support has been insufficient. In the first half of 2026, domestic retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles slowed. On the export front, although orders from Southeast Asia partially returned, overall growth was limited. As a differentiated chemical fiber variety, nylon has inherently higher price elasticity than polyester. In periods of tepid demand, it is more susceptible to cost-driven volatility. Whether the current price of 13,600 yuan/ton represents a bottom depends on crude oil trends over the next three months and the start of the peak consumer season.