China's textile and apparel exports in the first half of 2026 delivered a 'stable total volume, divergent structure' report card. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14, total exports from January to June reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year, maintaining a historically high level. However, the more notable trend is the accelerating divergence between categories: upstream textile exports hit $73 billion, up 3.5%, while apparel exports were $72.96 billion, down 0.7%. This gap signals that profits are shifting upstream, while downstream OEM pricing power continues to erode.
June Turning Point: Fall/Winter Restocking Sparks Rebound
June data alone showed a strong rebound. Monthly textile and apparel exports reached $29.27 billion, up 7.2% YoY and 14.3% MoM, driven by the start of overseas fall/winter restocking. Textile exports were $13.52 billion, up 12.2% YoY and 7.4% MoM; apparel exports hit $15.75 billion, up 3.2% YoY and surging 21% MoM. The concentrated release of replenishment orders indicates that overseas brands, after cautious procurement in the first half, are now restocking for seasonal demand.
In RMB terms, exchange rate fluctuations created some distortion. Cumulative exports in H1 were 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% YoY. However, textile exports were 506.42 billion yuan, down only 0.1%, showing strong resilience. Apparel exports were 505.8 billion yuan, down 4.2%, reflecting greater profit pressure on garment manufacturers. June RMB-denominated data also showed recovery, with monthly exports of 200.25 billion yuan. The fabric segment performed notably well, and while apparel saw a slight YoY decline, the over 20% MoM increase confirmed genuine overseas demand recovery.
Uneven Overseas Markets: US Biggest Driver, EU and Japan Weak
Analysis of export destinations in the first five months reveals a fragmented global demand landscape. The US market emerged as the largest growth driver, with export growth to the US expanding 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The clear positioning of bilateral relations following the China-US summit stabilized market expectations. More importantly, overseas brands have largely completed inventory destocking and are ramping up procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continue to weaken. The EU struggles with high energy costs and inflation, dampening consumer apparel spending. ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea face headwinds from regional tensions and rising energy prices, reducing their imports from China. Additionally, the temporary easing of Middle East tensions and falling shipping costs provided short-term boosts to June exports. For exporters, this means shifting from a 'broad net' approach to 'precision targeting'—the US market opportunity window is opening, while European recovery remains distant.
Product Structure Divergence: Upstream Intermediates Shine, Apparel Under Pressure
Detailed category data for the first five months clearly shows contrasting fortunes upstream and downstream. Intermediate textile orders performed strongly: yarn exports grew 6.6% YoY, fabric exports dipped only 0.5%, and finished textile products rose 2.6%. In contrast, apparel and accessories exports fell 1.6%.
This divergence stems from changes in overseas brand procurement strategies. Brands now favor low-inventory operations, reducing large long-term apparel orders and instead placing high-frequency orders for semi-finished goods like yarn and fabric. China's complete textile supply chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing to finished products—offers delivery efficiency and product quality that other regions cannot easily replicate. This is the core reason for sustained upstream growth. The apparel OEM track has lower barriers, facing international capacity diversion and price competition, a pressure unlikely to ease soon.
External Challenges Remain, Industry Foundation Solid
Looking ahead to the second half, the global trade environment remains complex. The World Bank warns of continued pressures from high energy prices, inflation, and tightening monetary policies. Global consumer spending growth is weakening, and stabilizing export volumes while optimizing product structure will face multiple challenges. Weak recovery in European and US end-consumer demand, high production costs, and fragmented global trade patterns will test industry players.
The H1 2026 textile and apparel export performance—'stable total volume, divergent structure, late-month rebound'—has injected confidence and clarified the direction of transformation. The era of low-price, high-volume exports is over. A complete supply chain, product innovation, and diversified global presence are the core tools for navigating cycles. While external uncertainties persist, China's deep textile industry foundation provides solid support for a stable export performance if companies adjust products and market strategies promptly.