China's cotton yarn imports surged 56.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, a number that forces the entire textile supply chain to reassess the demand-supply balance. According to publicly available customs data, June imports stood at approximately 170,000 tons, flat compared to May but up 54.2% year-on-year. The cumulative total for January to June reached 1.05 million tons, while the first ten months of the 2025/26 season (September 2025 to June 2026) hit 1.64 million tons, a 40.2% increase.
The Logic Behind the Import Surge
The sustained high growth in import volumes is not a coincidence. Domestic cotton prices have remained elevated since late 2025, creating a significant cost advantage for imported yarn. For small and medium-sized weaving mills in coastal clusters such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, using imported cotton yarn can save hundreds to thousands of yuan per ton compared to domestic alternatives.
More critically, downstream order structures are shifting. Western brands are increasingly enforcing compliance requirements, with some buyers explicitly excluding Xinjiang cotton or demanding full traceability. This has directly pushed export-oriented weaving mills toward imported yarn. In terms of product mix, 21s to 32s carded and combed yarns dominate imports, with Vietnam, India, and Pakistan as the top sources.
Impact on Industrial Clusters
The influx of imported yarn is reshaping pricing dynamics in key domestic cotton yarn markets. In traditional spinning regions like Shandong and Henan, local mills face intensified competition—especially in the mid-to-low count segment, where imported products have captured significant market share. Some inland spinners have been forced to cut output or shift to differentiated products such as high-count yarns, color-spun yarns, or functional blends.
On the weaving side, clusters in Foshan and Shaoxing—known for denim and home textiles—have shown greater acceptance of imported yarn. Mill operators report that imported yarn often offers better supply stability and more flexible payment terms, making it attractive for capital-constrained SMEs.
Price Outlook and Sourcing Rhythm
Current landed prices for imported cotton yarn remain relatively low, but caution is warranted for the second half of the year. Factors such as downward revisions in India's cotton production estimates and flood risks in Pakistan could push up export quotes. Meanwhile, any depreciation of the renminbi would directly raise import costs.
Seasonally, August and September typically mark the start of autumn/winter fabric procurement, which could further boost yarn demand. If imports remain elevated, port inventory pressure may intensify. Major ports are already sitting on near-two-year-high stock levels, prompting some traders to offer discounts to clear inventory.