China's textile and apparel exports totaled $145.96 billion in the first half of 2026, up just 1.4% year-on-year. But the June figure alone—$29.27 billion, a 14.3% month-on-month surge—signals a turning point worth more than the headline number.
Structural divergence beneath the stable total
Data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14 reveals a clear 'strong upstream, weak downstream' pattern. Textile exports reached $73 billion, up 3.5% YoY, while apparel exports stood at $72.96 billion, down 0.7%. Although the decline in apparel narrowed by 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier, pressure on the finished garment segment remains unresolved.
In RMB terms, currency fluctuations distorted the export data. Cumulative exports totaled 1.012 trillion yuan, down 2.2% YoY, with textiles slipping just 0.1%—showing strong resilience—while apparel fell 4.2%, squeezing manufacturers' margins.
The June rebound resulted from multiple catalysts: textile exports hit $13.52 billion (up 12.2% YoY), and apparel reached $15.75 billion (up 21% month-on-month). This reflects the start of the autumn/winter restocking season and a temporary easing of shipping costs amid a de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
US market drives growth as traditional markets falter
An analysis of exports in the first five months reveals a fractured global demand landscape. The US market was the biggest incremental contributor, with export growth accelerating 15 percentage points from a year earlier. The US-China summit stabilized bilateral expectations, and as overseas brands completed inventory destocking, they increased procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed weakening momentum. The EU is grappling with high energy costs and inflation, dampening consumer apparel spending; ASEAN and Japan/Korea saw reduced imports from China due to regional tensions and rising energy prices. This over-reliance on the US market itself poses a risk—any shift in trade policy could directly impact export totals.
Supply chain advantage materializes in data
Detailed product-level data for the first five months highlights the contrasting fortunes of upstream and downstream sectors. Yarn exports rose 6.6% YoY, fabric exports dipped just 0.5%, while apparel exports fell 1.6%. This divergence is no coincidence.
Overseas brands are adopting low-inventory strategies, reducing large long-term garment orders and instead sourcing yarns and fabrics more frequently. China's complete textile supply chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing to finished products—offers unmatched delivery efficiency and quality, underpinning the sustained growth of upstream categories. The garment OEM segment, with lower entry barriers, faces intense international capacity diversion and price competition, a pressure unlikely to ease soon.
Challenges and resilience ahead
The World Bank warns of triple pressures: rising energy costs, persistent inflation, and tightening monetary policies globally. Weak consumer recovery in the US and Europe, high production costs, and fragmented trade patterns will continue to test the industry.
Yet the June rebound clarifies the direction. The era of low-price, volume-driven exports is over. A complete supply chain, product innovation, and diversified global presence are the core means to navigate the cycle. While uncertainties remain in the second half, China's deep industrial foundation offers a solid base for stable export performance, provided companies adjust product and market strategies in time.