On July 21, spot prices of polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu experienced a notable decline, dropping 120 yuan per ton in a single day. The mainstream negotiation range fell to 7,450–7,550 yuan per ton, with some low-priced supplies even touching 7,350 yuan. This drop is relatively rare in the recent market and has prompted the chemical fiber sector to reassess the outlook.
Dual Pressure from Costs and Geopolitics
The core driver of this price decline comes from upstream costs. As the main raw material for polyester staple fiber, PTA prices have recently weakened due to fluctuations in international oil prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts has further amplified market risk aversion, with traders and downstream textile mills generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, suspending large-scale restocking.
On the supply side, staple fiber plant operating rates remain stable, with no major maintenance or production cuts reported. This indicates that the current price decline is not due to supply contraction but rather a resonance between weak demand and falling costs. Industry data shows that polyester staple fiber inventories in East China have accumulated for three consecutive weeks, suggesting that the supply-demand balance is shifting from tight to loose.
Industrial Impact: Transmission from Chemical Fiber to Weaving
The price drop in polyester staple fiber primarily affects downstream spinning and weaving sectors. For cotton spinners, the lower price of staple fiber may prompt some mills to adjust their raw material mix, increasing the use of chemical fiber and crowding out cotton demand.
However, from a broader perspective, the price cut has not translated into a significant rebound in downstream orders. The core challenge for textile mills is not raw material costs but insufficient export orders for finished garments. The destocking cycle in European and American markets is not yet complete, while competitors in Southeast Asia continue to expand capacity, eroding the pricing power of Chinese textile enterprises.
- Small and medium-sized weaving mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang report that operating rates have dropped from about 80% at the beginning of the year to around 60%
- Gray fabric inventory turnover days have extended to 25-30 days, increasing working capital pressure
- Some companies have adopted a "price-for-volume" strategy, but with limited effect
Outlook: Short-term Follows Costs, Mid-term Depends on Demand
Technically, the price has fallen to a low range for the year, leaving limited room for further sharp declines. However, conditions for a rebound are not yet in place—unless PTA costs show clear signs of stabilization or downstream orders unexpectedly recover.
The evolution of geopolitical conflicts remains the biggest variable. If the conflict escalates and disrupts crude oil supply, chemical fiber costs could face upward risk. Conversely, if the situation eases, the recovery of market sentiment may trigger a round of restocking. The editorial team believes that before the direction becomes clear, prices are likely to fluctuate in the range of 7,300-7,600 yuan per ton.