China's General Administration of Customs released the first-half 2026 foreign trade data for textiles and garments, revealing a picture of 'stable volume, structural divergence, and a late-month rebound' amid a complex global environment. From January to June, total textile and garment exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year, maintaining a historically high level. However, a closer look at categories and markets reveals a stark contrast in performance, reshaping the competitive logic of the industry.
June Marks a Key Turning Point The most critical signal from the half-year data came in June. Monthly exports hit $29.27 billion, surging 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month, far exceeding expectations. This rebound was not accidental—overseas brands started their autumn-winter stocking cycle earlier, combined with a temporary drop in shipping costs, prompting buyers to release orders intensively. Textile exports reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% YoY and 7.4% MoM, confirming the resilience of upstream raw materials and intermediate goods. Garment exports stood at $15.75 billion, up 3.2% YoY, but with a sharp 21% MoM increase, indicating a concentrated release of replenishment orders at the end of the quarter.
From a renminbi perspective, cumulative exports in the first half were 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% YoY, with exchange rate fluctuations distorting the figures. Textile exports of 506.42 billion yuan fell only 0.1%, highlighting strong risk resistance; garment exports of 505.8 billion yuan dropped 4.2%, underscoring persistent profit pressure on apparel manufacturers. In June, the renminbi-denominated figures also rebounded, with monthly exports reaching 200.25 billion yuan, rising both year-on-year and month-on-month, with the fabric segment performing particularly well.
Category Divergence: Upstream Resilient, Downstream Pressured Detailed data for the first five months reveals a 'scissors gap' along the supply chain. Yarn exports grew 6.6% YoY, fabric exports fell only 0.5%, and finished textile products rose 2.6%; in contrast, garments and clothing accessories dropped 1.6%. This divergence is not a short-term phenomenon but the result of shifting overseas procurement strategies.
Global brands are now operating with low inventory levels, reducing large long-term garment orders and instead purchasing semi-finished goods like yarn and fabric more frequently to cope with demand volatility. China's complete supply chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing to finished products—offers delivery efficiency and quality that are difficult for other regions to replicate, providing sustained growth momentum for upstream categories. In contrast, the garment OEM track has lower barriers, facing fierce international capacity diversion and price competition, a situation unlikely to reverse soon.
Market Polarization: US Shines, EU and Japan Slump The overseas market landscape shows significant fragmentation. In the first five months, the US market became the largest growth driver for the industry, with export growth to the US expanding by 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The summit meeting between Chinese and US leaders stabilized bilateral expectations, and as overseas brands completed inventory destocking, buyers increased procurement from Chinese supply chains, continuously boosting export volumes.
Conversely, traditional mature markets such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea saw weakening growth momentum. The EU is mired in high energy costs and inflation, depressing consumer spending on apparel; ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea are constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, leading to reduced imports from China. Additionally, the temporary easing of the Middle East situation and lower shipping costs contributed to the overall export recovery in June.
Challenges and Strengths Ahead Looking to the second half of the year, the global trade environment remains complex. The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face triple pressures from energy price hikes, high inflation, and monetary tightening. Consumer recovery in Europe and the US remains sluggish, while production costs remain elevated. Fragmentation of global trade patterns will intensify capacity competition, continuously testing industry players.
Yet China's textile and garment industry has clear strengths. A complete supply chain, product innovation capabilities, and a diversified global layout are core tools for navigating the cycle. The June export rebound has injected confidence—the era of low-price, high-volume exports is over. High value-add, fast-response delivery, and regional supply chains will become the new normal. Uncertainty persists in the second half, but with a solid domestic industrial foundation and timely adjustments in product and market strategies, the industry's export base remains stable.