China's textile and apparel exports in the first half of 2026 delivered a mixed performance: stable totals, structural divergence, and a June rebound. According to customs data in US dollars, cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year. This stability is notable given persistent global inflation and geopolitical tensions. However, beneath the surface, upstream and downstream sectors are moving in opposite directions, and whether the June seasonal surge can sustain through H2 remains uncertain.
Data Breakdown: June Autumn-Winter Restocking as a Key Inflection Point
The biggest highlight of H1 came in June, when monthly exports hit $29.27 billion, surging 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. This spike was driven by overseas buyers accelerating orders for autumn-winter season stockpiling. Textile exports reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% annually and 7.4% monthly; apparel exports totaled $15.75 billion, growing 3.2% year-on-year but jumping 21% month-on-month, signaling a sharp recovery in replenishment demand.
In RMB terms, currency fluctuations obscured some growth. Cumulative exports in H1 were 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year. Yet in June alone, exports hit 200.25 billion yuan, rising both annually and monthly. The fabric segment performed particularly strongly. The divergence between dollar-denominated growth and RMB-denominated decline means exporters faced additional pressure at settlement, squeezing profit margins.
Notably, textile exports ($73 billion) nearly equaled apparel exports ($72.96 billion) in cumulative terms. This near 50-50 split is unusual—historically, apparel dominates. The fact that textiles have edged ahead indicates that upstream intermediate goods demand is more resilient than finished garments.
Market Divergence: US Shines, EU and Japan Lag
Looking at export destinations in the first five months, global demand is sharply fragmented. The US market emerged as the biggest growth driver, with China's textile and apparel export growth to the US expanding by 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The logic is clear: the China-US summit stabilized bilateral expectations, and foreign brands, having largely cleared inventories, are increasing procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea are losing momentum. The EU is mired in high energy costs and inflation, dampening consumer spending on clothing. ASEAN and Japan-Korea are also facing headwinds from regional tensions and rising energy prices, reducing their imports from China. This "East rising, West falling" pattern suggests exporters need to recalibrate their market focus.
Temporary easing of Middle East tensions and falling shipping costs provided short-term boosts to June exports. But these factors' sustainability depends on geopolitical developments and global logistics costs—highly uncertain.
Product Structure: Upstream Resilience vs. Apparel Struggles
Detailed category data for the first five months vividly illustrates the contrasting fortunes of upstream and downstream sectors. Yarn exports rose 6.6% year-on-year, fabric exports dipped only 0.5%, and finished textile products grew 2.6%. However, apparel and clothing accessories fell 1.6%.
This divergence reflects a strategic shift by foreign brands: they are adopting lean inventory models, reducing large long-term apparel orders, and instead frequently purchasing semi-finished goods like yarn and fabric. China's integrated supply chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing, to finished products—offers high delivery efficiency and stable quality, underpinning upstream growth.
But the apparel OEM track has low barriers, with severe capacity diversion to Vietnam, Bangladesh, and other emerging manufacturing bases, which benefit from lower labor costs and tariff preferences. Low-price competition is intense, and the long-term pressure on apparel is unlikely to ease soon.
H2 Outlook: Confidence and Hidden Concerns
Looking ahead to H2, the external environment remains complex. The World Bank warns that the global economy will face triple pressures from rising energy prices, persistent inflation, and tightening monetary policy, weakening consumption growth. Recovery in European and American end-demand is sluggish, production costs remain high, and the fragmentation of global trade intensifies capacity competition.
Still, the June autumn-winter restocking surge has injected confidence. If restocking continues in H2, coupled with US market growth, the overall export picture could remain stable. But companies must recognize: the era of low-price, volume-driven growth is over. A complete supply chain, product innovation, and diversified global presence are the keys to navigating the cycle.