China's textile and apparel exports posted a stable yet structurally diverging performance in the first half of 2026. According to customs data released on July 14, total exports reached $145.96 billion from January to June, up 1.4% year-on-year. This volume, high by historical standards, indicates that the industry's export base remains solid despite global inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
The most notable signal came from June's monthly rebound: exports hit $29.27 billion, up 7.2% YoY and surging 14.3% month-on-month, marking the official start of the fall-winter restocking season. Textile exports alone reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% YoY, while apparel exports totaled $15.75 billion, up 3.2% YoY and 21% MoM. These figures suggest that accumulated restocking demand was released in a concentrated manner in June.
Market Divergence: US Drives Growth, EU and Asia Lag
By destination, the US market was the biggest growth driver in H1. Customs data shows that China's textile and apparel export growth to the US expanded by 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Two factors are at play: improved trade expectations following the US-China summit, and the completion of inventory destocking by overseas brands, which has prompted buyers to increase procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional mature markets such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed weakening momentum. The EU's high energy costs continue to fuel inflation, suppressing consumer spending on apparel. ASEAN, Japan, and Korea are also constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, reducing their imports from China. This 'West strong, East weak' pattern means that export growth in H2 will remain highly dependent on the sustainability of US demand.
Product Structure: Upstream Resilience, Garment Pressure
The divergence between upstream and downstream segments was another key feature of H1. Textile exports reached $73 billion, up 3.5% YoY, while apparel exports stood at $72.96 billion, down 0.7% YoY. Within textiles, yarn exports grew 6.6%, fabric exports edged down 0.5%, and finished textile products rose 2.6%.
This divergence reflects a shift in overseas procurement strategies. International brands are now adopting low-inventory models, reducing large, long-term garment orders in favor of frequent purchases of semi-finished products like yarn and fabric. China's complete industrial chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, and dyeing to finished goods—offers delivery efficiency and quality stability that emerging manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia cannot easily replicate. This is the core reason for the resilience of upstream categories. In contrast, the garment OEM segment has low entry barriers and is plagued by capacity diversion and price wars, squeezing margins.
Currency Fluctuations and Cost Pressures
Export data in RMB terms reveals the impact of exchange rate volatility. Total textile and apparel exports in RMB amounted to 1.01222 trillion yuan, down 2.2% YoY. Textiles reached 506.42 billion yuan, down just 0.1%, while apparel totaled 505.8 billion yuan, down 4.2%. The divergence between USD and RMB growth rates indicates that the depreciation of the RMB against the USD has eroded exporters' profits. In June, RMB-denominated exports also recovered, with the textile sector performing well, though apparel still showed a slight YoY decline.
For companies, currency volatility has become a normalized risk. In H1 2026, the RMB's central parity rate against the USD fluctuated by over 3%, directly impacting exporters' settlement income. This means that order growth alone is no longer sufficient to guarantee profitability; currency management capabilities are becoming a core competitive advantage.
Outlook for H2: Resilience with Persistent Uncertainty
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the external environment remains complex. The World Bank has warned that the global economy will continue to face the triple pressures of rising energy costs, high inflation, and monetary tightening. Consumer recovery in Europe and the US is sluggish, production costs remain elevated, and the fragmentation of global trade is intensifying capacity competition.
However, June's export rebound has injected confidence into the industry. Fall-winter restocking demand is expected to continue in July and August, and the US replenishment cycle may extend through Q3. Additionally, the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East and lower shipping costs provide short-term support.
For industry players, the era of relying on low prices and high volume is over. A complete industrial chain, product innovation, and global diversification are the core tools for navigating the cycle. The export base in H2 remains supported, but companies need to manage product mix, market allocation, and currency risk more carefully.