Polyester Filament Rally Hits Resistance: Volume-Price Divergence Signals in Wangjiangjing

In late July, the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang sent a warning signal: prices rose broadly, but sales volumes fell simultaneously.

The Volume-Price Divergence

Taking the Wangjiangjing market data on July 21 as an example, the transaction price of FDY 50D/24F semi-dull yarn climbed to 9,450-9,550 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan from two days earlier. The 150D/36F specification saw a more pronounced increase, with manufacturers like Xinfengming and Rongsheng raising prices by 150 yuan to 8,450 yuan per ton. POY and DTY series also followed the uptrend, with gains between 50 and 100 yuan. However, feedback from the weaving side indicated a clear cooling in purchasing appetite, especially for mainstream DTY 150D/144F, with buyers turning cautious.

This 'rising prices but weak sales' pattern is often interpreted as a sign of a near-term top in textile raw material trading. Upstream polyester raw materials PTA and MEG are currently in a fluctuating adjustment phase, offering little cost support. The recent price rally is largely driven by factory price support and restocking from earlier orders. If end-user demand fails to pick up, downward price pressure will quickly build.

Ripple Effects in the Industrial Cluster

As a key polyester filament distribution hub in the Yangtze River Delta, Wangjiangjing's price movements serve as a bellwether for surrounding weaving clusters like Shengze and Keqiao. Weaving mills are currently caught in a dilemma: gray fabric inventories remain high, while export orders for finished garments have not shown a significant recovery. If raw material prices continue to rise, it will directly squeeze already thin processing margins.

From a product perspective, FDY 75D/144F, used in water-jet weaving for faux silk fabrics, still shows decent sales, indicating resilience in differentiated products. However, the weakening of mainstream POY and DTY grades suggests deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for commodity items. If this trend persists, it may trigger mills to proactively reduce operating rates and cut raw material purchases, accelerating a polyester filament price correction.

Outlook and Operational Strategies

Considering raw material, supply, and demand factors, the short-term outlook for polyester filament is likely a transition into a 'high-level fluctuation to minor correction' phase. The key variable will be production cuts by upstream polyester plants: if inventory pressure mounts, factories may lower prices to free up cash.

For Buyers - Control procurement volumes for mainstream grades, prioritize using existing inventory, and avoid building positions at high prices. - Monitor price movements of differentiated products (e.g., FDY 75D/144F), which may see smaller corrections than commodity items, and consider locking in forward orders opportunistically. - Negotiate 'price drop compensation' clauses with suppliers to mitigate losses from rapid price declines.

For Weaving Mills - Flexibly adjust operating rates based on actual gray fabric orders, avoiding passive order-taking just to maintain production volume. - Strengthen coordination with end garment customers, incorporating raw material cost fluctuations into quotation mechanisms and shortening quotation validity periods. - Use futures tools (e.g., PTA futures) to hedge raw material price risks, especially suitable for larger mills with stable export orders.