In the first half of 2026, China's textile and apparel foreign trade delivered a mixed performance with stable total volume but clear structural divergence. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14, cumulative exports from January to June reached $145.96 billion, a slight 1.4% year-on-year increase, remaining at a historically high level. However, a closer look reveals a stark contrast between upstream and downstream sectors: textile exports hit $73 billion, up 3.5%, while apparel exports totaled $72.96 billion, down 0.7%.
This divergence reflects a fundamental shift in overseas brands' inventory strategies—moving from large-volume apparel orders to frequent purchases of semi-finished products like yarn and fabric, in response to demand uncertainty. China's complete textile supply chain, from chemical fiber to dyeing and finishing, offers delivery efficiency and quality advantages that are hard for other regions to replicate. This underpins the sustained growth of upstream categories. In contrast, the low entry barrier for apparel OEM has led to capacity migration to Southeast Asia and intensified price competition, making the long-term pressure hard to reverse.
June Turning Point: Autumn-Winter Stockpiling Drives Unexpected Rebound
June data became the highlight of the first half. Monthly textile and apparel exports reached $29.27 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year and surging 14.3% month-on-month, far exceeding expectations. Textile exports were $13.52 billion, up 12.2% annually and 7.4% monthly; apparel exports hit $15.75 billion, up 3.2% annually and a remarkable 21% monthly.
The core driver was the concentrated start of overseas autumn-winter stockpiling. A temporary easing in Middle East tensions and falling shipping costs provided short-term boosts. In RMB terms, June exports reached 200.25 billion yuan, with both annual and monthly increases, and the fabric segment performed particularly well. Although apparel still showed a slight annual decline, the over 20% monthly increase confirms genuine overseas demand is being released.
Market Divergence: US Becomes Largest Growth Driver, EU-Japan-Korea Remain Weak
An analysis of the first five months' export data reveals a fragmented global demand picture. The US market was the biggest growth contributor, with export growth rates expanding 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The China-US summit stabilized bilateral expectations, and as overseas brands completed inventory destocking, they increased procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continued to weaken. The EU is mired in high energy costs and inflation, depressing consumer spending on apparel. ASEAN, Japan, and Korea, constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, also reduced textile and apparel imports from China. This regional divergence requires exporters to reassess market strategies, increasing focus on the US and emerging markets.
Exchange Rate Disturbance and Cost Pressure: Squeezed Profit Margins
RMB-denominated data reveals the real impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exporters. First-half cumulative exports reached 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, contrasting with the dollar-denominated growth. Textile exports of 506.42 billion yuan were nearly flat, showing strong resilience, while apparel exports of 505.8 billion yuan fell 4.2%, putting significant pressure on apparel manufacturers' profits.
This means that despite stable dollar-denominated volumes, RMB appreciation combined with rising production costs is eroding actual profits. The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face triple pressures from rising energy prices, inflation, and monetary tightening, creating uncertainties for the second half. Companies must offset cost pressures through product innovation, efficiency gains, and diversified market expansion.