China's textile and apparel exports hit $145.96 billion in the first half of 2026, up 1.4% year-on-year. While the headline figure is modest, it underscores the industry's stability amid global inflation and geopolitical tensions. The standout was June: exports surged to $29.27 billion, a 7.2% YoY and 14.3% month-on-month increase, signaling the start of the autumn-winter restocking season.
June Export Surge: Restocking and Inventory Normalization
June's data was the highlight of the half-year report. Textile exports reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% YoY; apparel exports hit $15.75 billion, up 3.2% YoY but a remarkable 21% month-on-month. In RMB terms, June exports were 200.25 billion yuan, rising both YoY and MoM. This was not a tentative restock but a concentrated release of pent-up orders.
Two factors drove this: overseas brands had largely completed inventory destocking, and the autumn-winter procurement window opened earlier than usual. This suggests buyers are prioritizing supply chain speed, possibly to hedge against future logistics or cost volatility. For domestic factories, Q3 order visibility has improved, but sustainability remains uncertain.
Structural Divergence: Upstream Resilience vs. Downstream Pressure
The half-year data reveals a clear structural split. Textile exports grew 3.5% to $73 billion, while apparel exports dipped 0.7% to $72.96 billion. By subcategory, yarn exports rose 6.6%, fabric fell only 0.5%, and textile products increased 2.6%. In contrast, apparel and accessories dropped 1.6%.
The logic is straightforward: overseas brands now prefer buying semi-finished goods (yarn, fabric) for flexible, high-frequency ordering to reduce inventory risk. China's integrated supply chain—from fiber to finished products—offers unmatched efficiency and quality, making it indispensable for upstream categories. Meanwhile, the apparel OEM sector faces dual pressure from capacity relocation to Southeast Asia and fierce price competition at home.
US Market Dominates; EU, Japan, and Korea Lag
Export data for the first five months highlights a stark market divergence. The US was the biggest growth driver, with export growth accelerating by 15 percentage points YoY. This was fueled by improved bilateral relations after the Xi-Biden summit and restocking by US brands.
Conversely, demand from the EU, Japan, and Korea weakened. High energy costs and inflation dampened consumer spending in Europe, while ASEAN and Northeast Asian markets were constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices. A temporary easing of Middle East tensions and lower shipping costs provided a short-term boost in June, but these factors are not sustainable.
Going forward, export growth will rely increasingly on a few core markets rather than broad-based expansion. Companies need to reassess their customer portfolios.
Currency Distortion and Margin Squeeze
In RMB terms, cumulative exports fell 2.2% to 1.012 trillion yuan. Textile exports were virtually flat at 506.42 billion yuan, while apparel dropped 4.2% to 505.8 billion yuan. The divergence between USD and RMB figures reflects currency fluctuations, which erode exporters' profits. For apparel OEMs with thin margins, this is a direct hit to their bottom line.
Outlook: Resilience Amid Uncertainty
Looking ahead, the global trade environment remains challenging. The World Bank warns of sustained headwinds from energy prices, inflation, and monetary tightening. Consumer recovery in the West is slow, production costs remain high, and trade fragmentation intensifies competition.
However, China's textile and apparel industry retains a core advantage: its complete supply chain and delivery efficiency. The era of low-cost, high-volume exports is over. Innovation, market diversification, and supply chain optimization are the keys to navigating the cycle. June's rebound offers confidence, but companies must proactively adjust their product mix and market strategies rather than wait for orders.