Brent crude oil has broken through $95 per barrel, with WTI crude simultaneously reaching $89—a level that signals the cost pressure on the textile chemical fiber chain is approaching a critical point. The last time Brent hit this level was on June 11, and just one month later, international oil prices have surged again, this time against a more complex backdrop: a sharp drop in transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a strike on a Black Sea terminal that led to the suspension of Caspian Pipeline Consortium's oil transport from Kazakhstan, and risks to Saudi crude exports via the Red Sea. Three key supply routes are flashing red simultaneously.
The Triple Shock of Supply Disruptions
Geopolitical risks are the direct driver of this round of oil price increases. According to publicly available industry data, Brent crude rose 4.1% in early European trading on July 22 to $94.72 per barrel before breaching the $95 mark. WTI crude posted an intraday gain of 4.69%, closing above $89. The assessment from analysts at ING Group is worth noting: given the simultaneous supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Black Sea regions, current oil prices may still be undervalued.
For the textile industry, this judgment should not be overlooked. Crude oil is the source of the chemical fiber chain, and core raw materials such as PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filament, and polyester staple fiber are highly correlated with oil prices. Once oil prices remain elevated, chemical fiber costs will quickly pass through to downstream sectors.
The Lag and Magnitude of Chemical Fiber Cost Pass-Through
Historically, it takes one to two weeks for crude oil price changes to transmit to the chemical fiber end. However, the concentration of supply disruptions this time could shorten this cycle. PTA, as a direct raw material for polyester, is highly correlated with PX (paraxylene), which in turn is directly driven by naphtha and crude oil prices. If Brent crude remains above $95, PTA production costs are expected to rise by 300-500 yuan per ton.
Quotes for polyester filament and polyester staple fiber have already shown signs of following the uptrend. Data from China Customs shows that China's chemical fiber output grew by about 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, but downstream demand growth has slowed. This means cost increases may squeeze factory profits more than being fully passed on. For weaving enterprises that primarily use polyester, raw material inventory cycles typically range from 7 to 15 days. Once inventories are depleted, they will face significant pressure from higher replenishment costs.
Transmission Effects on Industrial Clusters
Chemical fiber clusters such as Keqiao in Shaoxing, Shengze in Jiangsu, and Changle in Fujian will bear the brunt. Keqiao, as the world's largest textile fabric distribution center, has a gray fabric price index that is extremely sensitive to raw material cost changes. If PTA prices continue to rise, ex-factory prices for conventional polyester fabrics such as polyester taffeta and springya may increase by 2-5%.
The weaving operating rate in the Shengze area is currently around 70%. If cost pressures intensify, small and medium-sized weaving mills may be forced to reduce operating rates to control inventory risks. The warp knitting industry in Changle, Fujian, is also facing a test, as polyester DTY (drawn textured yarn) is its main raw material, and rising oil prices will directly increase raw material procurement costs.
Notably, rising oil prices may also indirectly affect textile foreign trade through logistics costs. The freight rate increases caused by container ships detouring around the Cape of Good Hope have not yet fully subsided. If the Strait of Hormuz transit issue persists, marine insurance premiums may rise further, adding to the comprehensive costs of export enterprises.