China's textile and apparel exports in the first half of 2026 reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year. Behind this figure, a key signal deserves attention: upstream raw materials and intermediate products grew 3.5%, while finished apparel declined 0.7%. This divergence between the two ends of the supply chain reveals a structural shift in global sourcing logic.
Behind the June Rebound: Autumn-Winter Restocking and Inventory Cycle Resonance
Monthly data often capture turning points better than cumulative data. In June, textile and apparel exports hit $29.27 billion, up 14.3% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year. Textile exports reached $13.52 billion, surging 12.2% year-on-year, far outpacing apparel's 3.2% growth. This rebound is no coincidence—overseas brands have largely completed destocking, and combined with early release of autumn-winter orders, buyers are stocking up for the peak season.
From a RMB perspective, June exports totaled 200.25 billion yuan, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth. The fabric sector performed particularly well, reflecting that overseas clients prefer semi-finished over finished products. This 'buy intermediates, not finished goods' model is reshaping China's textile and apparel export structure.
US Market Stands Alone, Traditional Markets Stall
First five-month export data reveal significant regional divergence: the US market became the largest growth contributor, with export growth expanding 15 percentage points year-on-year. The China-US summit's stabilizing signals, coupled with brand inventory replenishment demand, drove buyers to increase procurement from China.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed weakening momentum. The EU is mired in high energy costs and inflation, depressing consumer apparel spending; ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea face headwinds from regional tensions and rising energy prices, reducing imports from China. The temporary easing of Middle East tensions and falling shipping costs were short-term positives for June exports but unlikely to provide long-term support.
Upstream Resilience from Supply Chain Completeness, Apparel Dilemma Persists
Product-level data further confirm the depth of structural divergence. In the first five months, yarn exports grew 6.6% year-on-year, fabric exports fell only 0.5%, and textile products exports rose 2.6%. In contrast, apparel and accessories exports fell 1.6%.
The upstream segment's resilience stems from China's complete textile supply chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing to finished products—offering delivery efficiency and product quality hard to replicate elsewhere. Overseas brands now generally adopt low-inventory strategies, reducing large apparel orders and instead frequently sourcing semi-finished yarns and fabrics, precisely amplifying China's upstream advantage.
However, the apparel OEM track faces severe challenges: international capacity diversion (to Southeast Asia, South Asia, etc.) and intense price competition. For companies relying on apparel exports, the second half of 2026 will remain a 'bottoming out' process.
External Challenges and Transformation Direction
The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face triple pressures of energy price hikes, high inflation, and tight monetary policies. Weak end-consumer recovery in Europe and the US, rising production costs, and fragmentation of global trade patterns will continue to test industry players.
The first half of 2026 saw a unique pattern of 'stable total volume, structural divergence, month-end recovery.' The June rebound injects confidence and clearly points to transformation direction: the era of relying on low-price volume exports is over. Complete supply chains, product innovation, and global diversified layout are the core tools for navigating industry cycles.