The continuous rise in international oil prices is transmitting new cost pressures downstream into the textile supply chain. On July 23, major polyester factories in the Shengze area collectively raised their polyester filament yarn quotes, with FDY series products generally increasing by 100-150 CNY/ton, and some specifications rising by as much as 200 CNY/ton. However, downstream weaving mills have not responded favorably to this price hike.
Divergence Between Cost and Demand
From the cost side, the driving force behind this price increase is clear. Rising international oil prices have pushed up the costs of polyester raw materials PX, PTA, and MEG, forcing polyester factories to absorb higher production costs. At the same time, supply of some polyester filament yarn varieties has become relatively tight, with factory inventories at reasonably low levels, providing fundamental support for price increases. Major suppliers including Shenghong, Tongkun, Xinfengming, and Rongsheng have all raised quotes for various FDY products, with full-dull series also seeing increases of around 100 CNY/ton.
However, from the demand side, the market presents a completely different picture. Late July falls in the traditional off-season for the textile industry, with end-use garment orders entering a lull. More critically, widespread high temperatures and rainy weather across the country have directly impacted weaving production in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, with comprehensive operating rates for texturing and weaving mills remaining at multi-year lows. Low operating rates mean a significant contraction in rigid raw material demand, as downstream enterprises lack both the willingness to restock and the confidence to chase price increases.
Signals of Divergence Between Price and Volume
After the latest round of price increases, actual transaction volumes at polyester factories have not followed suit. According to industry public data, overall market sales of polyester filament yarn on July 23 were mediocre, with almost no bulk transactions and only sporadic small-lot purchases for immediate needs. This divergence between 'rising quotes and cold transactions' reflects the deep-seated contradiction in the current supply chain—upstream costs are transmitted smoothly, but downstream end demand cannot absorb them.
Looking at the specific price table, the FDY 50D/24F specification from Taicang Shenshen and Shaoxing Tiansheng saw a single-day increase of 200 CNY/ton, leading this round of price adjustments. However, the end-use applications for these fine-denier yarns are mainly in imitation silk and down jacket fabrics, sectors that are also experiencing weak orders. The price increase reflects more of the factories' willingness to support prices than a substantive improvement in market supply-demand dynamics.
Short-Term Outlook: Firm but Limited Upside
Looking ahead, polyester filament yarn prices are expected to remain firm in the short term, with the possibility of further small increases in some varieties. Supporting factors come from two aspects: first, upstream raw material prices are likely to remain high, making it difficult for polyester factories to alleviate cost pressures in the near term; second, factory inventories have not yet built up to levels that would trigger distress selling, and the tight supply situation for some varieties persists.
However, the room for price increases and their sustainability are questionable. The off-season effect is expected to last at least until mid-August, and the suppression of weaving operating rates by high temperatures will not fade quickly. Although downstream enterprises' raw material inventories are not high, their willingness to actively restock is extremely low given the unclear order outlook. This means that even if factories continue to raise prices, it will be difficult to trigger large-scale concentrated procurement, and the market is likely to maintain a stalemate of 'rising without release'.