China's textile and garment exports in the first half of 2026 reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year. While the headline figure suggests stability, the data reveals two sharply diverging trajectories: textile exports hit $73 billion, growing 3.5%, while garment exports stood at $72.96 billion, declining 0.7%. The upstream and downstream sectors are experiencing vastly different fortunes.
June Rebound: Seasonal Restocking or Trend Reversal? June exports surged to $29.27 billion, a 7.2% year-on-year increase and a 14.3% month-on-month leap—the strongest month of the half. Textile exports reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% year-on-year; garment exports hit $15.75 billion, surging 21% month-on-month. Data from the General Administration of Customs, released July 14, confirms that overseas autumn/winter restocking has begun.
However, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable. In RMB terms, cumulative H1 exports fell 2.2% to 1.012 trillion yuan. Garment exports dropped 4.2% to 505.8 billion yuan, indicating that actual profit pressure on apparel makers is far greater than dollar-denominated data suggests. The June spike likely reflects concentrated replenishment orders for the autumn/winter season, not a recovery in end-consumer demand.
Market Divergence: US Leads, Europe and Japan Lag Data from the first five months paints a highly fragmented global demand picture. The US market was the biggest growth driver, with export growth widening by 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. A stable bilateral relationship outlook following the US-China summit, combined with depleted brand inventories, has prompted buyers to increase procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed weak momentum. The EU's high energy costs and persistent inflation have dampened consumer spending on apparel. ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, have reduced textile and garment imports from China. This pattern of "strong in the East, weak in the West" is unlikely to shift in the near term.
Supply Chain Advantage: The Moat of Upstream Raw Materials Detailed category data reveals a key trend: yarn exports grew 6.6% year-on-year; fabric exports edged down only 0.5%; textile products exports rose 2.6%; while garments and accessories fell 1.6%. The resilience of upstream raw materials and intermediate goods far exceeds that of finished garments.
This reflects a fundamental shift in overseas brand procurement strategies. More buyers are abandoning large-volume, long-term garment orders in favor of frequent, small-batch purchases of semi-finished goods like yarn and fabric. China's integrated supply chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, and dyeing to finished products—offers delivery efficiency and quality stability that other production bases cannot easily replicate. The garment OEM segment, with lower entry barriers, faces intense competition from international capacity relocation and domestic price wars, squeezing margins.
H2 Challenges: Navigating Triple Pressures The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face three pressures: rising energy costs, persistent inflation, and tightening monetary policies. This means weak recovery in Western end-consumer demand, high production costs, and intensifying capacity competition from fragmented global trade patterns.
For industry players, the era of low-price, volume-driven exports is over. A complete supply chain, product innovation, and diversified global market presence are the core tools for navigating the cycle.