In June 2026, China imported 168,090 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year surge of 54.21%, sustaining the strong growth momentum seen in the first half of the year. However, a more noteworthy signal is that Vietnam's share of imports fell below 53% for the first time to 52.28%, while Indian yarn imports skyrocketed by 386.89% year-on-year, raising its share to 13.05%. The structure of import origins is undergoing a fundamental shift, with diversification moving from expectation to reality.
Background
According to China Customs statistics, total cotton yarn imports in the first half of the year reached about 1.0468 million tons, up approximately 56% year-on-year. The January-May period alone saw 878,700 tons, a 56.69% increase. Although June imports fell 2.42% month-on-month, they remained high due to the base effect. This growth is driven by recovering downstream weaving and garment export orders, as well as the substitution effect from the widening price gap between domestic and imported yarn.
Notably, Vietnam's import share dropped from 58.8% in 2025 and 55% in Q1 2026 to 52.28% in June. Meanwhile, Indian yarn imports surged from about 4,500 tons a year ago to 21,940 tons, an almost fourfold increase. Shares from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, and Malaysia also gradually rose, indicating that domestic downstream mills are shifting away from sole reliance on Vietnam's cost-effectiveness toward diversified origins to meet varied quality needs.
Industry Impact
The diversification of import origins forces cotton yarn traders and weaving mills to adjust procurement strategies. On one hand, India's rapid volume growth is supported by its price advantage: despite consecutive rises in India's domestic S-6 cotton prices and CCI auction floor prices since mid-July, Indian yarn overseas quotes have remained stable, with some second- and third-tier brands even offering lower prices. However, Indian mills and exporters have notified buyers that bonded and shipment quotes will be adjusted upward soon, urging early orders to lock in costs. This signals an imminent price hike for Indian yarn, narrowing the procurement window.
On the other hand, although Vietnam's share declined, large mills and branded yarn have already raised FOB/CNF/CIF quotes modestly, especially for open-end yarn and high-grade C32S/C40S, with arrivals growing counter-cyclically. This reflects Vietnam's shift toward mid-to-high-end quality, while the low-end market is being eroded by India, Uzbekistan, and others. Pakistan and Uzbek yarn overseas quotes, after minor increases, have entered a wait-and-see phase with slower inquiries and shipments, as the market tests downstream acceptance of higher prices.
Indonesian low-count yarn and 21S-45S T/C yarn have seen brief active trading due to strong cost performance and timely delivery. This suggests structural opportunities exist within the overall price hike expectation. For buyers, the core short-term challenge is: Indian yarn prices are set to rise, Vietnamese yarn quality is diverging, and Central Asian yarn prices are still in negotiation—the price spreads and supply stability among origins are being reshuffled.