The benchmark price of nylon DTY settled at 16,120 CNY/ton on July 24, 2026, up 1.77% from the beginning of the month. While this figure may seem modest, its position within a year-long cycle tells a deeper story: from a trough of 13,560 CNY/ton to a peak of 18,960 CNY/ton, the current price sits just below the median value of 16,260 CNY/ton, a mere 140 CNY gap. This suggests the market is neither in panic selling nor trending upward, but rather in a delicate equilibrium.
Shifting Price Center
Over the past year, nylon DTY prices have fluctuated by 5,400 CNY/ton, with the gap between bottom and top approaching 40%. This volatility reflects a tug-of-war between caprolactam capacity cycles and downstream weaving utilization rates. The 13,560 CNY/ton trough occurred in the second half of 2025, when the chemical fiber industry faced inventory destocking pressures, and the nylon chain experienced cost inversions. The 18,960 CNY/ton peak corresponded to a concentrated raw material replenishment in early 2026, but this high was short-lived, quickly retreating to the current median range.
With an annual average of 15,104.70 CNY/ton, the current price stands about 1,015 CNY above that average, indicating that overall industry profitability has improved over the past year. However, zero daily change suggests a lack of short-term directional momentum, with buyers and sellers awaiting clearer signals—either new raw material quotes or a surge in downstream garment orders.
For fabric buyers, the current price is an awkward position: betting on a decline risks a sudden cost spike if raw materials rise due to maintenance or production cuts; chasing the trend risks insufficient downstream demand to support higher prices. This hesitation itself reflects the market's true state.
Transmission and Divergence in the Supply Chain
Nylon DTY price movements are never isolated. They directly impact upstream caprolactam and chip prices, and influence profit margins for downstream warp knitting and circular knitting sectors. When DTY prices are at the median, upstream suppliers' bargaining power is relatively balanced, but weaving mills' situations diverge based on order structures.
Mills focused on the domestic market are currently watching the start of autumn fabric orders. If apparel brands place concentrated orders in August-September, nylon DTY procurement could pick up, pushing prices above the median. Export-oriented factories, facing dual pressures from exchange rate volatility and overseas inventory cycles, are more price-sensitive and tend to wait or replenish in small batches.
Notably, the current price of 16,120 CNY/ton is 2,840 CNY below the peak and 2,560 CNY above the trough, with almost symmetrical upside and downside potential. This symmetry means the current level is neither the best time to bottom-fish nor the golden window to sell. For well-funded buyers, phased procurement may be safer than one-time price locking.
Inventory and Expectation Game
From an inventory perspective, social stocks of nylon DTY have gone through a 'decline then rise' cycle this year. Aggressive destocking in the second half of 2025 laid the foundation for the early 2026 rebound, but subsequent new capacity releases have gradually rebuilt inventories. The current median price reflects a short-term balance between stocks and demand—neither scarce enough to push prices up nor excessive enough to force them down.
This balance is fragile; any external shock could break it. For instance, international crude oil price fluctuations directly impact caprolactam costs, which then transmit to DTY. Or if downstream textile and garment export orders exceed expectations in Q4, inventories could be quickly absorbed. Thus, the current median state is more like a crossroads than a destination.