The national textile and apparel professional markets delivered a mixed report card for June. According to the latest monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC) Circulation Branch, the merchant sentiment index rebounded to 50.07, returning above the boom-or-bust line. However, both the profit index and the average selling price index remained below 50, indicating that profit margins in the downstream circulation segment have not improved in tandem.
Divergent Sentiment: Managers vs. Merchants
Looking at the overall indices, the manager sentiment index for June stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous month but still in contraction territory. In contrast, the merchant sentiment index rose 0.34 percentage points to 50.07, entering expansion territory. This divergence suggests that the improvement in the market-level operating environment has not yet fully trickled down to individual merchants.
Sub-indices further corroborate this assessment. On the manager side, the total business volume index remained flat at 49.03, while the logistics shipment volume index and foot traffic index both rose by 0.64 percentage points to 49.03, indicating that overall people flow and goods flow are recovering, but transaction volumes have not yet expanded significantly. On the merchant side, the sales volume index rose by 1.03 percentage points to 50.14, but the average selling price index fell by 0.22 percentage points to 49.30, and the profit index, despite rising by 0.89 percentage points, remained at only 49.86. This means merchants are clearly trading volume for price—selling more but earning less.
E-commerce Emerges as the Sole Bright Spot
Among all sub-indices, the e-commerce sales index performed most prominently. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, both above the boom-or-bust line and rising month-on-month. More critically, 22.58% of professional market managers reported an increase in e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; 9.79% of merchants reported an increase in e-commerce sales, a significant rise of 8.42 percentage points.
E-commerce channels are becoming a crucial buffer for textile professional markets against fluctuations in offline foot traffic. For buyers, this trend means the traditional 'market-touring' procurement model is being replaced by a hybrid model of online selection and offline sampling. For small and medium-sized merchants who rely on booth traffic, building online sales capabilities has shifted from an option to a necessity.
Costs and Inventory: Pressure and Relief Coexist
In June, the merchant comprehensive cost index was 50.63, down 0.19 percentage points from the previous month but still above 50, indicating that cost pressure is generally manageable. However, it is noteworthy that 6.99% of merchants reported an increase in operating costs, a proportion that rose by 6.99 percentage points month-on-month, signaling a trend that warrants attention.
On the inventory front, the inventory index stood at 50.00, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous month, with 10.49% of merchants reporting a decrease in inventory, an increase of 8.44 percentage points. While easing inventory pressure helps improve merchant cash flow, it may also signal weakening replenishment demand, posing a potential concern for the sustainability of orders for upstream fabric and yarn companies.
Outlook Optimistic, but Base Effects Need Attention
Looking ahead to July, all four forward-looking indices are above 50. The manager forward-looking sentiment index is 50.32, while the merchant forward-looking sentiment index is 50.84, with the merchant side showing stronger confidence. However, the manager forward-looking sentiment index dropped by 2.91 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that market management's optimism about the subsequent trend has somewhat moderated.
Historically, June is typically a transitional period between the traditional off-season and peak season for textile professional markets, as summer fabric procurement winds down and autumn/winter orders have yet to commence in large volumes. Whether this sentiment recovery can be sustained will depend critically on the landing of autumn/winter fabric orders in July and August.