At 8,900 yuan per ton, that was the ex-factory price for polyester FDY 150D/96F semi-dull AA grade from Rongsheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber on July 24, 2026. On the same day, Tongkun Group quoted 9,060 yuan, Zhejiang Tiansheng Chemical Fiber quoted 8,960 yuan, and Zhejiang Jiabao New Fiber quoted 8,950 yuan. The price spread widened to 160 yuan per ton—not a random fluctuation, but a clear signal of intensifying supply-demand tensions along the polyester chain.
Price Divergence Reflects Underlying Supply-Demand Dynamics
Looking at the quotation list, factories in Shaoxing and Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, offered prices within the 8,900-9,060 yuan range, but pricing strategies among leading players diverged markedly. Rongsheng and Juxing offered the lowest price of 8,900 yuan, while Tongkun's 9,060 yuan was 1.8% higher. In normal market conditions, such a spread rarely exceeds 100 yuan; the 160-yuan gap suggests sellers hold divergent views on future market direction.
For buyers, this means room for negotiation is opening up. More critically, the price loosening is not an isolated event. As a midstream product in the polyester chain, FDY prices are directly influenced by upstream PTA and MEG cost fluctuations, as well as downstream fabric mills' operating rates. Late July is typically a transition period from off-season to stocking season, so the price divergence implies downstream inventory digestion is slower than expected, and fabric mills prefer to wait rather than stock up.
Transmission Effects Across Regional Industrial Clusters
All quoted factories are located in Zhejiang Province, concentrated in Hangzhou and Shaoxing—two major textile hubs. Shaoxing, as one of China's largest polyester filament fabric production bases, accounts for over 15% of national polyester filament consumption. Price adjustments by local mills usually transmit to downstream markets such as Shengze, Nantong, and Keqiao within one to two weeks.
Current pricing strategies in Shaoxing reveal two points: first, large mills like Rongsheng and Tongkun have an increased need for cash flow recovery and are willing to lower prices to move volumes; second, small-to-medium-sized chemical fiber companies such as Juxing and Jiabao have to follow suit to retain customers. This "big mills lead, small mills follow" price-cutting rhythm has historically appeared before industry inflection points. If factories in other parts of Zhejiang follow suit within the next two weeks, it will essentially confirm that the polyester chain has entered a phase of destocking.
Practical Implications for Downstream Buyers and Exporters
For fabric traders and weaving mills, the current price window is a signal worth watching, but not a time for blind bottom-fishing.
For Buyers - Adopt a "batch purchasing" strategy: build small positions in the 8,900-8,950 yuan range, and increase volumes only if prices break below 8,800 yuan. - Focus on subsequent quotes from Rongsheng and Tongkun: these two companies are industry bellwethers; their pricing policy adjustments typically lead the market by 3-5 days. - Monitor upstream PTA prices: current FDY margins are already compressed. If PTA prices rebound, FDY's downside will be limited, potentially shortening the low-price purchasing window.
For Exporters - Build flexibility into export order quotations: with domestic prices softening, overseas clients may use this to pressure for lower prices. It is advisable to include a "price valid for 3-5 days" clause in quotations, referencing the day's leading mill prices as a benchmark. - Watch the exchange rate and freight cost interplay: RMB exchange rate fluctuations in July will significantly impact export margins. If the RMB depreciates alongside FDY price declines, exporters can offer modest concessions to secure orders; if the RMB appreciates, hold the price line. - Exploit regional arbitrage opportunities: the price spread between Zhejiang and Jiangsu/Fujian for polyester FDY is typically 50-100 yuan. If Zhejiang prices continue to fall, consider sourcing from Zhejiang and reselling to markets like Fujian or Guangdong where prices are relatively firm, net of logistics and warehousing costs.
Outlook: Short-Term Pressure, Mid-Term Demand Dependent
Overall, polyester FDY prices find strong support around 8,900 yuan—the breakeven line for most mills. However, if terminal apparel export orders fail to recover by August, prices could dip to the 8,700-8,800 yuan range. A real turnaround hinges on whether traditional pre-season stocking in September materializes and whether upstream PX-PTA maintenance schedules cause a cost-side spike. For now, industry players are advised to operate with "low inventory, fast turnover" as the core strategy, awaiting clearer demand signals.