On July 24, 2026, the polyester DTY (150D/48F) market witnessed an unusual price divergence: Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 9,550 yuan per ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted only 9,400 yuan per ton, a gap of 150 yuan per ton. Such a significant price difference for the same specification and grade on the same trading day has been rare in the past year. This phenomenon reflects the combined pressures of overcapacity, raw material cost volatility, and weak downstream demand. For textile industry practitioners, this is not just a numerical change but a potential signal that the polyester filament market is entering a new adjustment cycle.
Industry Logic Behind Price Divergence
On the raw material side, PTA and MEG prices have been under pressure recently. Since the second quarter of 2026, international oil prices have been volatile and declining, driving down PX prices and weakening PTA cost support. Meanwhile, domestic PTA social inventory remains above 2.8 million tons, increasing factory sales pressure, causing spot PTA prices to fall from 6,200 yuan per ton in May to around 5,800 yuan per ton in July. This directly undermined the cost support for polyester DTY, opening space for price declines.
However, on the supply side, capacity expansion for polyester DTY has not slowed. In the first half of 2026, domestic new polyester filament capacity increased by about 1.2 million tons, with DTY accounting for about 35%. Rongsheng Petrochemical, as an industry leader, completed a technical upgrade at its Shaoxing base in the first half of the year, increasing single-line output by 15%, giving it a cost advantage through economies of scale. In contrast, small and medium-sized enterprises like Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber operate at only about 75% capacity utilization, facing greater inventory pressure and thus adopting more aggressive price-cutting strategies to free up capital.
This pattern of "large factories stabilizing prices, small factories cutting prices" reflects a structural contradiction during the process of increasing industry concentration. Large enterprises, with their scale advantages and integrated industrial chain layout, can withstand lower profit margins, while SMEs face gross margins compressed to below 5%, forcing them to trade volume for price.
Downstream Demand and Foreign Trade Transmission
Demand-side data is equally unfavorable. From January to June 2026, the operating rate of domestic weaving enterprises averaged 62%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, the operating rate of water-jet looms was only 58%, the lowest for the same period in three years. Downstream fabric manufacturers' purchases of polyester DTY are primarily for essential needs, with extremely low willingness to stockpile, and order cycles have shortened from the previous 15 days to 7-10 days.
In the foreign trade market, due to weak final consumption in Europe and the United States, China's direct exports of polyester filament in the first half of 2026 fell 8.3% year-on-year. Specifically, DTY exports to major textile exporting countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh decreased by 12% and 9%, respectively. This has caused some goods originally intended for export to turn to the domestic market, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Price Trend Forecast and Risk Points
In the short term, polyester DTY prices will remain under pressure. PTA prices have already fallen below 5,800 yuan per ton in late July. If international oil prices continue to decline, PTA may further drop to 5,500 yuan per ton, fully compressing DTY profit margins. However, it is noteworthy that current DTY prices are already close to the cash cost lines of some SMEs, limiting the potential for further significant declines.
The medium-term risk lies in the speed of capacity consolidation. If downstream demand does not show obvious recovery in the fourth quarter of 2026, the industry may face a wave of SME shutdowns or consolidation. The pricing power of leading companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical will further strengthen, while the survival space for small and medium manufacturers will become narrower.