In June 2026, China's textile and apparel professional market sentiment indices showed a moderate recovery, with the manager sentiment index at 49.78 and the merchant sentiment index at 50.07, up 0.43 and 0.34 percentage points from the previous month, respectively. However, beneath these aggregate figures, the market's internal divergence is more complex than the surface data suggests. Notably, the merchant profitability and average selling price indices continue to linger below the boom-bust line, indicating that profit recovery in the downstream circulation segment has not kept pace with the rebound in traffic.
Manager Side: Logistics and Foot Traffic Recover, Business Environment Expectations Weaken
From the manager perspective, the June sentiment recovery was primarily driven by three sub-indices: logistics shipment volume, foot traffic, and e-commerce sales, each rising by 0.64 percentage points month-on-month to 49.03 and 51.61, respectively. However, it is noteworthy that the current business environment index actually fell by 1.61 percentage points to 51.94, reflecting that market management is positive about the short-term recovery in foot traffic but lacks confidence in medium-to-long-term improvements in external operating conditions. The store opening rate index edged up 0.32 percentage points to 49.35, while the rental index rose 0.33 percentage points to 50.65, indicating that the utilization of physical space in professional markets is slowly recovering but has not yet returned to expansion territory.
Merchant Side: Sales Recover but Profitability Under Pressure, Cost-Price Scissors Widen
Although the merchant sentiment index crossed the expansion threshold of 50.07, its internal structure is unbalanced. The sales volume index rose 1.03 percentage points to 50.14, providing the main support for the overall index. However, the average selling price index fell 0.22 percentage points to 49.30, and the profitability index, despite rising 0.89 percentage points, only reached 49.86, still below the boom-bust line. This suggests that merchants are engaging in 'volume-for-price' strategies, boosting sales through price cuts or promotions, but at the expense of profit margins. Meanwhile, the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 percentage points to 50.63, indicating rising cost pressure, while the inventory index rose 0.21 percentage points to 50.00, suggesting some relief in inventory turnover pressure.
This combination of rising sales, falling prices, increasing costs, and weak profitability is a classic signal of operational distress for small and medium-sized merchants. For buyers, this may imply that wholesale prices for finished products such as fabrics and apparel still have room to decline in the short term, but supply stability could be affected by squeezed margins among suppliers.
E-commerce Channel: A Definite Growth Segment, but Share Needs Monitoring
In the June data, e-commerce sales stood out as the only sub-index where both managers and merchants recorded increases and remained above 50. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, and the merchant index was 50.49, up 0.64 and 0.35 percentage points, respectively. More notably, 22.58% of professional market managers reported an increase in e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; the corresponding figure for merchants was 9.79%, up 8.42 percentage points. E-commerce is emerging as a growth pole beyond traditional offline channels, but the proportion of merchants reporting e-commerce sales growth remains significantly lower than the overall market level, indicating that most merchants still rely on offline wholesale.
Forecast Indices: Merchant Confidence Overtakes Managers, July Trajectory Uncertain
The forecast indices present an interesting contrast: managers' forecast for July sentiment fell by 2.91 percentage points to 50.32, and their forecast for the business environment fell by 1.93 percentage points to 50.97; in contrast, merchants' forecast for July sentiment rose by 0.70 percentage points to 50.84, and their forecast for the business environment rose by 0.77 percentage points to 50.84. Although all four forecast indices remain above 50, they point in opposite directions. Managers' caution may stem from uncertainty about the pace of macroeconomic consumption recovery, while merchants' optimism is more likely driven by the short-term boost from June's sales recovery.