On July 24, 2026, the market offers for domestic polyester POY 150D/48F semi-dull first-grade products showed rare consistency: three major Zhejiang chemical fiber companies—Juxing Chemical Fiber, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Senkai New Materials—quoted prices within a narrow range of 8,450-8,550 yuan/ton, with the spread narrowing to just 100 yuan/ton. This price convergence is uncommon in the chemical fiber market, driven by a dual squeeze between stable upstream costs from PTA and MEG and sluggish downstream demand from texturing and weaving sectors.
The Industrial Logic Behind Price Stalemate
Based on public offer data, Juxing quoted 8,500 yuan/ton, Rongsheng 8,450 yuan/ton, and Senkai 8,550 yuan/ton, all hovering near the industry's average production cost line. Industry data suggests the full cost of POY currently sits around 8,300-8,400 yuan/ton, meaning the 8,450-8,550 yuan/ton range leaves only razor-thin margins, with some less efficient producers already operating below breakeven.
The price stalemate stems directly from the two-way squeeze of raw materials and demand. Upstream PTA prices, influenced by international oil volatility, have oscillated between 5,800-6,000 yuan/ton since July, while MEG has traded in the 4,200-4,400 yuan/ton range, providing a relatively rigid cost floor for POY. However, downstream texturing mills' operating rates continue to decline during the traditional off-season, with POY procurement limited to essential replenishment, lacking any stockpiling appetite. This "ceiling above, floor below" pattern has locked POY prices in a narrow range.
Chain Transmission and Regional Industrial Cluster Response
Shaoxing and Hangzhou, as core production hubs for domestic polyester filament, make the price dynamics of these three companies particularly indicative. Juxing is based in Shaoxing, while Rongsheng and Senkai are in Hangzhou; collectively, they account for about 15% of Zhejiang's total POY capacity. Their price convergence signals that small and medium-sized chemical fiber plants in the region will likely reference this range, keeping the POY market in a "volume contraction, price stability" state in the short term.
For downstream texturing enterprises, the POY price stalemate means DTY costs will not ease soon. Current DTY 150D/48F market prices are around 9,800-10,000 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1,300-1,500 yuan/ton over POY, barely covering processing fees. If this spread narrows further, texturing mills will face margin pressure, forcing them to cut operating rates and creating a negative feedback loop.
The weaving sector is equally concerning. Grey fabric inventories in major weaving clusters like Shengze and Changxing have climbed to 30-35 days, well above the 20-day safety line. End-brand apparel orders have slowed noticeably, and export orders are expected to decline 5%-8% year-on-year in Q3 due to overseas destocking cycles. This extreme caution has made "buy-as-you-use" the dominant procurement strategy for weaving mills.
Key Variables for Price Outlook
Whether POY prices can break the stalemate depends on three key variables. First, international oil price trends—if Brent crude falls below $75/barrel, lower PTA costs would directly open the door for POY price declines. Second, the pace of downstream operating rate recovery—if the traditional autumn/winter fabric stocking season kicks off in late August, higher texturing and weaving rates could boost POY demand. Third, industry inventory levels—current POY social inventories stand at 15-18 days, moderately high; if inventories continue to accumulate, producers may be forced to cut prices to destock.
Historically, July to early August is the "bottom of the off-season" for the polyester chain, with prices usually grinding near cost levels. In the same period of 2025, POY prices fell to 8,200 yuan/ton; the current 8,450-8,550 yuan/ton range is about 3% higher, indicating stronger cost support this year. However, this also means that if costs soften, the potential for price correction could be larger.