In the third week of July 2026, the bulk textile raw material market presented a rare picture of clear divergence. The synthetic fiber chain posted broad gains, led by acrylonitrile with a 5.25% weekly surge, followed by polyester POY (+3.21%) and FDY (+3.09%), while nylon series rose 2%-3%. In contrast, raw silk edged down 0.14%, and cotton yarns (21S, 32S) remained flat. The message is clear: upstream petrochemical costs are accelerating downstream, but downstream demand absorption varies sharply by category.
Cost Push and Demand Divergence
Acrylonitrile's average price jumped from 9,850 to 10,366.67 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, far outpacing all other monitored varieties. As a key input for acrylic fiber and ABS resin, this surge directly raises cost baselines for downstream products. For knitting mills using acrylic blends, procurement bargaining power will narrow significantly in late July, and August price hikes should be anticipated.
The polyester filament rally is more nuanced. POY, FDY, and DTY rose 3.21%, 3.09%, and 2.22% respectively, with increments tapering from upstream to downstream—a classic cost-push pattern. PTA rose 1.49% (YoY +27.71%), confirming solid support for the polyester chain. However, polyester spun yarn prices were unchanged, suggesting weaving mills have nearly exhausted their ability to absorb higher costs, and inventory pressure may be building.
Nylon series (POY, DTY, FDY) saw moderate gains of 1.54%-2.94%, reflecting cost pass-through rather than demand surge. Nylon is mainly used in sportswear and outdoor gear, where supply-demand balance remains relatively stable.
Stagnation in Natural Fibers and Industry Implications
In contrast to the synthetic rally, cotton and silk sectors were nearly silent. Cotton rose only 0.65%, cotton yarns 21S and 32S were completely flat, and viscose staple, rayon yarn, and spandex showed no movement. Raw silk even fell 0.14%, with a YoY decline of 10.58%—the only variety with a negative annual comparison.
What does this mean? First, end-use garment orders for cotton goods remain weak, with brands and traders adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward high-priced cotton yarn. Second, raw silk's persistent weakness aligns with a global downgrade in silk consumption, especially in Europe where high inflation curbs luxury silk purchases. For production hubs focused on cotton and silk (e.g., Nantong home textiles, Zhejiang silk towns), third-quarter order prospects look dim; mills should keep raw material inventory cycles short to avoid being caught at high prices.
Strategic Implications for Procurement and Foreign Trade
The current price divergence essentially reflects a tug-of-war between cost-driven and demand-driven forces. Synthetic varieties have upstream support from crude oil and PX, making them prone to further increases in the near term. Natural fibers, constrained by weak end demand, lack upward momentum. Textile companies must adjust stocking strategies based on their product mix.
For Procurement Teams - Acrylonitrile and acrylic materials: Shorten procurement cycles, use small-batch high-frequency replenishment to hedge against unilateral price hikes; negotiate price protection clauses with suppliers. - Polyester filament: Current gains may have partially priced in cost expectations; watch for PTA plant maintenance in early August—if PTA corrects, a brief buying window may open. - Cotton yarn and raw silk: Maintain low inventory, purchase only against confirmed orders to avoid stockpiling amid demand uncertainty.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Synthetic fabric export orders: Shorten quotation validity to 7-10 days, include raw material price adjustment clauses in contracts to prevent acrylonitrile/PTA rises from eroding margins. - Silk products: Take advantage of low raw silk prices to sign long-term agreements with overseas buyers, locking in cost advantage; monitor European economic data for signs of retail recovery. - Blended products: Increase the share of polyester-cotton or nylon-cotton blends to spread cost risk and reduce exposure to single-fiber price volatility.
In summary, the data from the third week of July 2026 reveals a key turning point: the textile raw material market is shifting from broad-based inflation to structural divergence. The price gap between synthetics and natural fibers may widen further. Companies that manage their supply chains with precision will be best positioned to protect margins in this evolving landscape.