In June 2026, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton, a 3-fold year-on-year surge but a 2.7% month-on-month decline. Behind this figure lies a deeper signal: the import cotton sourcing structure is undergoing a dramatic reshuffle. Brazilian cotton's cost-effectiveness edge is eroding due to price increases, while Australian cotton is rapidly filling the gap with stable pricing. For textile mills, this means procurement strategies must shift from a 'price-only' approach to a composite consideration of 'supply chain resilience plus cost efficiency.'
Dramatic Shift in Import Sources: Brazilian Cotton Slows, Australian Cotton Rises
The data paints a clear picture. In June, Brazilian cotton imports stood at 44,100 tons, a 32.2% month-on-month plunge, with its share dropping 18 percentage points to 40%. Meanwhile, Australian cotton imports surged to 30,600 tons, a 22-fold month-on-month increase, with its share jumping from near zero to 28%, a 98-percentage-point rise. U.S. cotton imports fell 28.1% to 17,900 tons, with a 16% share.
This structural shift is no coincidence. Brazilian cotton's average landed price was $1,669/ton, up 3.3% month-on-month, while Australian cotton's price was $1,927/ton, down 1.1% month-on-month. The narrowing price gap highlights Australian cotton's cost-effectiveness advantage. For textile mills, amid a slower off-season procurement pace, choosing Australian cotton with stable pricing and reliable supply becomes a rational choice to hedge against cost volatility. This also means that relying on a single source is increasingly risky.
Rising Import Prices: Supply-Demand Expectations and Weather as Dual Drivers
In June, the average import price rose to $1,804/ton, up 6.2% month-on-month. The core drivers are twofold: First, the USDA July report lowered 2025/26 global ending stocks by 1.96 million tons, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling to 63.1%, reinforcing tight supply expectations. Second, drought in major U.S. cotton-growing regions fueled output concerns, pushing U.S. cotton prices up 9.2% to $2,026/ton.
Notably, price trends diverged across origins. Brazilian and U.S. cotton prices rose, but Brazilian cotton's increase was milder (3.3%), while U.S. cotton saw the sharpest gain (9.2%). Australian cotton prices bucked the trend with a slight decline, creating a price oasis. This divergence will directly influence future procurement decisions: if Brazilian cotton prices continue to climb, its market share may be further eroded by Australian cotton; high U.S. cotton prices may prompt some buyers to seek alternatives.
Trade Modes and Downstream Demand: Structural Support in Off-Season
By trade mode, goods under customs special supervision zones remained the largest at 43,000 tons, but their share fell to 39%. General trade imports reached 21,000 tons, up 1.4% month-on-month, with a 19% share. The rise in general trade's share suggests some mills maintained active procurement intentions during the off-season, rather than relying solely on bonded inventory adjustments.
On the demand side, June textile and apparel exports reached $29.27 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. The overseas autumn/winter apparel replenishment cycle started, boosting yarn and grey fabric orders, providing fundamental support for cotton imports. However, domestic mills remained in the traditional off-season, slowing procurement and causing a month-on-month import decline. This 'external heat, internal cold' pattern means import cotton digestion speed depends on the sustainability of export orders and domestic inventory destocking efficiency.
Global Supply Outlook: Production Increase and Inventory Pressure Coexist
The USDA July report shows 2026/27 global cotton production revised up by 2.613 million tons, with Brazil, the U.S., Turkey, and Central Asia all planning to increase output. Ending stocks are slightly up, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising to 58.4%. This suggests a looser global cotton supply in the new season, potentially pressuring forward prices.
In the short term, Brazilian cotton exports remain strong—321.9 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025/26, up 18.9% year-on-year, with China as the top buyer (767,000 tons, 24% share). However, as Brazilian cotton prices rise, China's procurement share may face downward pressure. Meanwhile, Australian cotton's supply capacity and price stability will be key variables in vying for China's market share.