The ripple effects of a sharp drop in crude oil prices quickly manifested in the Shengze polyester filament market on July 27.
Feedstock Pressure, Trading Volume Plummets
On July 27, easing geopolitical tensions led to a significant decline in international crude oil prices, directly dragging down PTA and MEG futures. This cost-side loosening quickly transmitted to the polyester filament spot market. According to industry public data, the sales-to-output ratio of major polyester plants in the Shengze area generally fell to 20%-30%, further declining from July 25-26, with some plants recording even lower levels.
Faced with a sudden demand chill, most polyester plants adopted a flat pricing strategy, maintaining the previous day's ex-factory prices to stabilize market expectations. However, room for negotiation has emerged in actual transactions, with some plants even attempting slight price increases of around 50 yuan per ton at market open. For example, Shenghong Chemical Fiber's FDY 50D/24F rose from 9,700 to 9,750 yuan/ton, and FDY 75D/36F also increased by 50 yuan. Overall, price adjustments remain localized, with most specifications holding steady.
Weak Downstream Buying Intent, Inventory Drawdown Dominates
The expectation of lower costs is reshaping downstream operations. Enterprises in water-jet looms, warp knitting, and texturing sectors are generally consuming their own raw material inventories, showing significantly reduced purchasing interest for polyester filament spot goods. This wait-and-see attitude is unsurprising during a downward raw material price cycle—buyers prefer to wait for lower prices rather than actively building positions at current levels.
However, inventory data from polyester plants indicate that overall inventory pressure has not yet reached warning levels. This means factories have no urgent need for large-scale price cuts to clear stocks, leading to a stalemate where buyers wait for declines while sellers try to hold prices. For traders, this pattern means fewer trading opportunities, narrower spreads, and increased operational difficulty.
Geopolitical and Cost Dynamics, Short-Term Weak Adjustment to Continue
The core driver of this polyester filament price fluctuation stems from crude oil volatility linked to geopolitical factors. As external risk premiums fade, the logic of cost support weakens, and market sentiment quickly turns conservative. For the textile industry, raw material price stability directly affects downstream order-taking willingness. Currently, end-use fabric orders have not seen explosive growth, and downstream enterprises prefer just-in-time purchasing to control costs.
From an industrial cluster perspective, Shengze, as a key polyester filament distribution hub, serves as a price bellwether. If this weak adjustment continues, it may further impact pricing strategies in surrounding production areas like Xiaoshan, Tongxiang, and Taicang. In the coming week, close attention should be paid to international oil price trends and PTA futures movements, which will be key variables determining whether polyester filament prices can stabilize.