Polyester FDY Prices Stabilize: A New Balance in the Fiber Market Amid Capacity Competition

The market price of polyester FDY 150D/96F semi-dull grade settled at 8,800 yuan per ton on July 27, with two representative producers—Rongsheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical—quoting identical figures. This seemingly flat number indicates that the price volatility of this specification has narrowed to less than 3% over the past three months, signaling a shift from sharp fluctuations to a sideways consolidation phase in the chemical fiber market.

The Logic Behind Price Stabilization The 8,800 yuan/ton level sits exactly on the medium-term axis of FDY prices over the past year. In Q4 2025, FDY quotes briefly exceeded 9,500 yuan/ton due to crude oil price swings and rising PTA costs. After entering 2026, prices rapidly fell below 8,500 yuan/ton as new capacity came online. The current stabilization is not driven by demand recovery but by proactive supply-side control. Public industry data shows that in the first half of 2026, domestic polyester filament yarn capacity increased by approximately 1.2 million tons, with FDY accounting for over 40% of the total. However, downstream weaving mill operating rates remained at only about 68%, widening the supply-demand gap. Against this backdrop, leading companies have adopted a "price stabilization to protect margins" strategy. Both Rongsheng and Juxing are located in Zhejiang Province, sharing the same industrial cluster with strong price linkage. Their simultaneous quotation of 8,800 yuan/ton effectively signals to the market that "the bottom is in," discouraging downstream users from further price suppression or switching to substitutes. For small and medium-sized polyester plants, this price level is near the break-even point—based on current PTA and MEG costs, the gross profit per ton of FDY is only 200-300 yuan. Further price cuts would lead to industry-wide losses.

Industrial Belt Reactions and Upstream-Downstream Transmission Shaoxing and Hangzhou, as the core areas of Zhejiang's chemical fiber industry, have benchmark significance for pricing. Shaoxing hosts the country's largest chemical fiber trading market, accounting for over 25% of daily FDY transaction volume nationwide. When local producer Juxing Chemical quoted 8,800 yuan/ton, small and medium factories in the surrounding area were effectively locked into the same range, unable to compete on price. This pattern of "leading enterprises set prices, followers comply" has significantly reduced price elasticity in the Zhejiang production zone, but it also provides stable cost expectations for downstream weaving enterprises. Downstream purchasing behavior is undergoing subtle changes. Fabric inventories in weaving clusters like Shengze and Changxing have declined for two consecutive months, but companies show weak willingness to restock. The reason lies in terminal garment orders remaining short-term and urgent, discouraging weavers from holding large inventories. More critically, the price gap between FDY and POY/DTY is narrowing—the spread between 150D FDY and same-spec POY has shrunk from 600 yuan/ton at the start of the year to 400 yuan/ton. This means the alternative of using POY for texturing no longer offers a clear cost advantage, actually strengthening FDY's demand rigidity. The foreign trade sector is also feeling the price transmission. Fabrics using polyester FDY as the main raw material, such as pongee and nylon-spun, have seen their FOB quotes to Southeast Asian buyers remain largely unchanged, but profit margins are compressed. A foreign trade company in Nantong reported that FDY fabric FOB prices have risen only 2% from the beginning of the year, while raw material costs have fallen 4% over the same period. Theoretically, profits should improve, but in reality, Southeast Asian buyers are also watching China's chemical fiber price trends and often split orders into multiple small batches to hedge against price volatility.

Key Variables for Future Trends Whether polyester FDY prices can hold at 8,800 yuan/ton depends on three variables. First is the PTA side. The current PTA processing fee has been compressed to below 400 yuan/ton, prompting some plants to schedule maintenance. If PTA prices rebound, FDY cost support will strengthen. Second is the seasonal recovery of end demand. September is typically the preparation period for autumn/winter fabrics. If weaving operating rates recover to above 75%, FDY may see a round of restocking. Third is the competitive landscape in export markets. India and Vietnam are rapidly expanding their polyester capacity, narrowing China's export price advantage for FDY. In the first half of 2026, FDY export volume grew only 3% year-on-year, far below the 12% growth rate in H1 2025.

For Buyers - The current price is at a stage bottom; consider building 1-2 months of inventory in batches around 8,800 yuan/ton to avoid price spikes from concentrated purchasing. - Monitor PTA plant maintenance: if PTA operating rates fall below 75%, FDY costs will rise, so lock in orders early. - Prioritize leading suppliers in Zhejiang for better price stability and delivery reliability compared to smaller mills.

For Foreign Trade Companies - When negotiating floating price clauses with overseas clients, anchor the FDY base price at 8,800 yuan/ton with a fluctuation range of ±5%. - Leverage the current price advantage to increase competitiveness of FDY-based fabric export quotes, especially in Southeast Asia, using "fixed-price, guaranteed volume" strategies. - Monitor India's anti-dumping investigation on Chinese polyester filament yarn; if final tariffs are high, prepare to develop alternative markets in the Middle East and Africa.