On July 27, 2026, the bulk textile commodity market showed clear divergence: PTA plunged 2.81% in a single day, polyester staple fiber followed with a 1.70% drop, while cotton bucked the trend with a slight 0.05% increase. The price trajectories of chemical fibers and cotton are showing signs of decoupling, driven by fundamentally different supply-demand dynamics.
Chemical Fiber Chain: Dual Pressure from Cost Collapse and Weak Demand
PTA, the source of the polyester chain, saw the largest daily decline at 2.81%, falling from 6,170 yuan/ton to 5,997 yuan/ton. Polyester staple fiber dropped 1.70%, while polyester FDY, POY, and DTY fell 0.37%, 0.07%, and 0.07% respectively. Almost the entire polyester sector was in the red, with an average daily change of -0.29%.
The direct cause of this decline is volatility in upstream crude oil prices. PTA prices are highly correlated with oil, and recent international price drops have directly compressed PTA margins. More critically, the willingness of downstream weaving and garment companies to stock up remains low—terminal orders have not shown clear recovery, and inventory pressure from polyester filament and staple fiber is being transmitted to the PTA link.
Year-on-year data shows PTA prices are still 23.02% higher than the same period last year, and polyester FDY has risen 25.92%. This indicates the current decline is a high-level correction rather than a trend reversal. However, the speed and concentration of the decline suggest the market's outlook for third-quarter demand is not optimistic.
Cotton Chain: Independent Strength from Tight Supply
In stark contrast to the chemical fiber chain's weakness, cotton achieved a slight 0.05% gain, rising to 17,658 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 13.50%. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat but up 5.74% and 5.44% year-on-year respectively. Viscose staple fiber, rayon yarn, and spandex also remained stable.
The resilience of the cotton chain comes from the supply side. Domestic commercial cotton inventories are at multi-year lows, and the tight supply pattern before the new crop arrives is hard to change. Meanwhile, limited import quotas further narrow supply elasticity. This makes cotton raw material prices less sensitive to weak demand—even if downstream orders are sluggish, prices are unlikely to fall sharply.
Notably, raw silk prices fell 10.58% year-on-year, the only negative growth among the listed varieties. The divergence between silk, cotton, and chemical fibers indicates that the supply-demand fundamentals of different fiber types are widening.
What Divergence Means: Recalibrating Procurement Strategies
The price divergence between chemical fibers and cotton poses new challenges for textile companies' procurement decisions. In the past, raw material procurement was often centered on price comparison, but in the current environment, the differences in supply-demand logic among varieties are more important than absolute prices.
For companies primarily using polyester, the rapid decline in PTA means short-term cost pressure relief, but they should be cautious about bottom-fishing risks—if crude oil prices continue to fall, PTA still has room to decline. A strategy of small batches and high frequency is recommended to avoid locking in high-priced inventory at once.
For cotton textile companies, although current cotton prices are high, the support from tight supply is strong, and the probability of a significant drop is low. They can appropriately increase the proportion of long-term contracts to lock in supply stability, while paying attention to policy signals before the new cotton arrives.