In June 2026, China's cotton imports reached 110,000 tons, up 3x year-on-year but down 2.7% month-on-month. The average import price rose 6.2% month-on-month to $1,804/ton, but the more striking shift was in the origin mix: Brazilian cotton's share plummeted 18 percentage points to 40%, while Australian cotton's share nearly doubled to 28%. This structural change is driven by price dynamics, supply-demand expectations, and cautious mill purchasing amid the traditional off-season.
The year-on-year surge in imports is largely due to a low base effect—June 2025 saw only 27,000 tons imported, the lowest monthly figure in 20 years, due to tariff hikes. The month-on-month decline reflects mills' cautious stance during the off-season. However, the domestic-foreign cotton price gap remained high at around 3,000 yuan/ton, making imported cotton still attractive. In the first half of 2026, cumulative imports reached 935,000 tons, up 100% year-on-year.
Origin Shift: Brazil Loses Ground, Australia Gains
Brazilian cotton imports fell 32.2% month-on-month to 44,100 tons, as its average price rose 3.3% to $1,669/ton. This eroded its cost advantage, causing its share to drop from 58% to 40%. Meanwhile, Australian cotton imports surged 22x month-on-month to 30,600 tons, with its share jumping from 14% to 28%, as its price edged down 1.1% to $1,927/ton. U.S. cotton imports fell 28.1% to 17,900 tons, with a share of 16%, as its price rose 9.2% to $2,026/ton—the largest increase among major origins.
This reshuffling is price-driven and likely temporary. If Brazilian cotton prices correct, its share may recover quickly. But Australia's rise also reflects mills' demand for stable, high-quality supply, especially for premium yarn orders.
Trade Mode and Price Trends
In terms of trade mode, general trade accounted for 19% of imports in June, up 12 percentage points month-on-month, signaling that more cotton entered domestic circulation directly rather than staying in bonded zones. This usually indicates recovering downstream demand. The average import price rose 6.2% month-on-month, but year-on-year it was still down 8.6%. The USDA July report projected a 261.3 million-ton increase in global production for 2026/27, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 58.4%, which could pressure prices in the medium term.
Export Recovery: Autumn/Winter Orders Drive Growth
China's textile and apparel exports reached $29.27 billion in June, up 14.3% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year, driven by overseas autumn/winter stocking. Garment exports rose 21% month-on-month, while textile exports grew 12.2%. However, mills' cautious purchasing suggests lingering uncertainty about order sustainability. Brazil's June cotton exports surged 63.4% year-on-year to 217,000 tons, but China's share of Brazil's total exports fell to 24%, consistent with the price-driven decline in Brazilian cotton imports.