8,800 CNY per ton. That was the unified quotation for domestic polyester FDY (150D/96F, AA grade) on July 27, 2026, across the two major industrial clusters of Hangzhou and Shaoxing. The price remained frozen, yet beneath the surface, a quiet struggle was unfolding—a temporary equilibrium among raw material costs, capacity release, and terminal orders, all poised at a critical juncture.
The Logic Behind the Price Stalemate
Two representative companies, Rongsheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber, both locked their daily quotations at 8,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a typical characteristic of the current polyester filament market: sellers actively capping prices while buyers remain cautiously on the sidelines. From a cost perspective, recent volatility in PTA and MEG prices has narrowed, providing short-term support for FDY quotes. However, from a supply-demand standpoint, industry operating rates remain high, and social inventories have climbed to elevated levels compared to the same period in recent years. The 8,800 CNY/ton price appears more as a 'psychological price point'—neither offering concessions to stimulate purchases nor raising prices to test the market.
What does this price level mean for downstream weaving enterprises? For the 150D/96F specification, current quotes have fallen approximately 5%-8% from the beginning of the year but remain about 3% higher than the same period last year. Weaving mills are facing a stark reality: grey fabric prices have not kept pace with raw material cost increases, squeezing profit margins close to the breakeven point. A mid-sized weaving mill in Shaoxing reported that order lead times have shortened from 30 days to less than 15 days, and raw material procurement strategies have fully shifted to 'buy-as-needed' mode.
Regional Capacity Landscape and Transmission Chain
Hangzhou and Shaoxing, the core regions for these quotations, are also the densest areas for polyester filament capacity in Zhejiang Province. Rongsheng Petrochemical's FDY production lines in Xiaoshan, Hangzhou, boast an annual capacity exceeding 400,000 tons, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber's Shaoxing lines focus on differentiated fine-denier varieties. The price alignment between the two companies is no coincidence—it reflects an unspoken agreement among leading players to avoid initiating a price war in the current market environment.
However, the concentration of regional capacity also introduces risk. Should downstream orders experience an unexpected decline, inventory pressure in Zhejiang's main production areas would rise first, potentially breaking the price alliance. Historical experience from 2019 and 2022 shows similar stalemates followed by sharp price cuts. With increasing trade barriers in textile exports and unclear recovery momentum in domestic consumption, the pressure for FDY prices to move downward is accumulating.
The Dilemma of Procurement and Inventory Management
For fabric traders and apparel brand procurement departments, the current FDY price level falls into an 'awkward' zone. Restocking risks price drops, but failing to restock risks missing a low-price opportunity. Public industry data shows that inventory days for raw materials among weaving enterprises have dropped from 20 days at the beginning of the year to about 12 days, the lowest in three years. This 'de-stocking' behavior itself further suppresses the demand elasticity of FDY.
Looking at a longer cycle, domestic polyester FDY capacity additions between 2024 and 2026 exceed 2 million tons, while downstream demand growth is only 3%-5%. The widening supply-demand gap implies a long-term downward trend in the price center. The 8,800 CNY/ton level may prove to be a 'ceiling' rather than a 'floor' for the next quarter.