Polyester Staple Fiber Price Eases: Xiamen Xianglu Cuts Quote by 100 Yuan/Ton, Bull-Bear Battle Intensifies

On July 27, the domestic polyester staple fiber (PSF) market showed a clear price easing signal. Xiamen Xianglu lowered its quote for semi-dull direct-spun 1.4D*38mm PSF by 100 yuan/ton to 7,900 yuan/ton for short-distance delivery. As a major producer, Xianglu's price adjustment often serves as a market bellwether, directly guiding spot transaction prices downward.

Bull-Bear Battle Intensifies

In contrast to the soft spot market, the futures market is still attempting a rebound. The main 2609 contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at 7,478 yuan/ton on July 22, up 102 yuan/ton from the previous session, with open interest increasing by 5,250 lots. The expansion of open interest indicates active capital participation, but the divergence between bulls and bears is deepening. The spot price cut will inevitably cap the short-term upside of futures, especially when the basis shifts from premium to flat or even discount, significantly increasing hedging pressure.

From an industry perspective, this price adjustment is not an isolated event. PSF prices have been range-bound since the second quarter, with weakening cost support from upstream raw materials PTA and MEG, and downstream textile mills operating at around 70% capacity, purchasing only for immediate needs. Xianglu's price cut is more a reflection of profit redistribution along the supply chain.

Industry Impact and Transmission Path

For downstream yarn mills, lower raw material costs can temporarily ease profit pressure. However, if terminal orders do not pick up simultaneously, price cuts will only lead to inventory depreciation rather than demand activation. Current gray fabric inventories are at moderate-to-high levels, and garment export orders show only seasonal improvement with limited overall momentum. The spot price cut may trigger follow-up adjustments by other PSF producers, leading to an industry-wide price correction.

Key consumption hubs such as Changle in Fujian, Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, and Wujiang in Jiangsu will feel the impact first. Traders should maintain low inventory levels during this period to avoid passive restocking in a downward price channel.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Procure on a need-to-order basis in the short term; avoid excessive price pressure that may compromise supplier quality or delivery. - Monitor open interest changes in the main ZCE contract; if open interest continues to rise without a price breakout, it suggests strengthening bearish forces and further spot price declines.

For Exporters - Include raw material price fluctuation clauses in export contracts, or use forward locking mechanisms to mitigate profit compression from falling PSF prices. - Track competitor pricing in Southeast Asia; if domestic prices continue to weaken, export competitiveness may improve phase by phase.