On July 27, 2026, the benchmark polyester FDY 150D/96F semi-dull AA grade was quoted at 8,800 CNY/ton by both Rongsheng Petrochemical in Hangzhou and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber in Shaoxing. This price level represents a cumulative decline of approximately 6% from the beginning of the year, yet it has formed a short-term bottom compared to the lows of the past three months. The core contradiction lies in the ongoing decline in polyester capacity utilization, while PTA costs have rebounded seasonally due to PX maintenance, squeezing the processing margin of polyester filament.
Supply-Demand Logic Behind the Price Signal
The 8,800 CNY/ton quote is not universal across the industry. As representative producers in East China, Rongsheng and Juxing's pricing primarily reflects regional inventory pressure and customer structure. The operating rate of Jiangsu-Zhejiang weaving clusters has dropped from the June peak to around 68%, with grey fabric inventory days climbing above 35. Downstream willingness to stock up on polyester filament has weakened notably. Meanwhile, polyester plants' finished product inventory is also at a five-year seasonal high, with some small and medium-sized factories reducing output or shifting to differentiated varieties to alleviate supply pressure on conventional specifications.
It is worth noting that 150D/96F is a commodity grade facing the most intense competition. The processing cost for this specification is roughly in the range of 1,200-1,500 CNY/ton. At the current 8,800 CNY/ton, if PTA prices remain above 5,700 CNY/ton, the cash flow of the polyester segment will approach the break-even line. This implies that unless raw material costs experience an unexpected decline, the room for further FDY price reductions is quite limited.
Cost Transmission and Regional Divergence
Looking upstream, PX entered a concentrated maintenance period in late July, with domestic operating rates falling to 72%, directly pushing PTA prices from 5,600 CNY/ton to around 5,800 CNY/ton. This cost increase has not yet been fully transmitted to the polyester filament segment due to weak downstream demand that prevents polyester plants from raising prices. However, historical experience suggests that when PTA rises by more than 200 CNY/ton and persists for over two weeks, polyester plants typically follow with price increases of 100-300 CNY/ton.
Regionally, Hangzhou and Shaoxing, as dense polyester production areas, show highly synchronized quotes, but actual transaction prices involve implicit discounts. Large-volume customers can often secure real transaction prices of 8,500-8,600 CNY/ton, while small and medium traders still transact at the listed 8,800 CNY/ton. This price stratification reflects market liquidity constraints—large mills lock in long-term contracts through concessions, while the spot market remains deadlocked.
Capacity Cycle and Inventory Game
In the first half of 2026, domestic polyester filament added approximately 1.8 million tons of new capacity, with FDY accounting for about 35%. These new capacities are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, resulting in an 8% year-on-year increase in supply of conventional specifications. However, the growth rate of end-use garment exports has slowed from 12% in the first quarter to 4% in June, widening the gap between domestic and foreign demand growth.
In terms of inventory structure, FDY inventory days at polyester plants stand at 18-22 days, above the industry safety line of 12-15 days. This means that even if a short peak season restocking occurs, destocking pressure will cap the height of any price rebound. More critically, weaving mills' raw material inventory has been compressed to 7-10 days, a historical low. Once market sentiment turns positive, there may be a pulse of purchasing, but it is unlikely to form a sustained upward trend.