On July 27, 2026, two major polyester clusters in China—Hangzhou and Shaoxing—simultaneously quoted polyester FDY 150D/96F semi-dull AA grade at 8800 CNY per ton. Both Rongsheng Petrochemical and Juxing Chemical Fiber, two heavyweight suppliers in the chemical fiber circle, gave identical quotes. This is no coincidence, but a typical signal that the polyester chain has entered a 'low-volatility' game phase.
Behind the Price Stalemate: A 'Two-Way Squeeze' from Costs and Demand
The 8800 CNY/ton price point first implies that FDY producers' profit margins have been squeezed to near-breakeven levels. Based on current spot prices of PTA and MEG, the theoretical processing spread for FDY is approaching the industry's breakeven line. Suppliers cannot lower prices because their cost side offers little room for concessions; they cannot raise prices because downstream weaving mills' purchasing willingness is equally cautious.
From an inventory structure perspective, current FDY social inventory is at a neutral-to-low level, but not tight. Weaving mills generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, reluctant to build up large stocks before terminal orders become clear. This synchronized wait-and-see attitude from both upstream and downstream has jointly formed the 8800 CNY/ton price anchor.
Industrial Concentration: Why Two Cities' Quotes Converge
The identical quotes from Rongsheng and Juxing are not price collusion, but a natural result of increased industrial concentration. Rongsheng Petrochemical, leveraging its integrated refining and chemical capacity at Zhejiang Petrochemical, enjoys significant scale and cost advantages in FDY. Juxing Chemical Fiber, on the other hand, has long specialized in differentiated FDY products and also holds pricing power in standard specifications.
Hangzhou and Shaoxing are only about 100 kilometers apart. Chemical fiber companies in these two cities share the same raw material supply system and downstream customer base. When leading enterprises quote 8800 CNY/ton, smaller manufacturers' actual transaction prices can only fluctuate within 50-100 CNY/ton around this benchmark, or they risk losing customers. This 'price benchmark system' led by top players is becoming the new normal in the polyester spot market.
Downstream Transmission: Weaving Operating Rates Are the Real 'Price Switch'
For buyers, the 8800 CNY/ton FDY quote is not the key; the key is how long this price can hold. From the terminal demand perspective, current domestic textile and apparel consumption is still in the tail end of the off-season, with the domestic market dominated by replenishment orders and no explosive growth yet. On the export side, the recovery of textile capacity in Southeast Asia is diverting some orders, but China's advantages in quality and supply stability for polyester filament yarn remain intact.
The real variable determining FDY's price trend is the comprehensive operating rate of weaving mills in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region. If the operating rate rebounds to over 70% after August, the FDY supply-demand balance will shift from 'weak equilibrium' to 'tight equilibrium', creating 300-500 CNY/ton of upward price potential. Conversely, if terminal demand remains sluggish, the 8800 CNY/ton support level will face a test.