The polyester staple fiber market, after a moderate upward trend, is now facing a new direction choice. As of July 28, 2026, the industry benchmark price stood at 7,532.75 yuan per ton, up 1.54% from 7,418.65 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month. However, the day-on-day decline of 1.70% has cast a shadow over market sentiment. This seemingly contradictory data reflects the intense tug-of-war between cost and demand sides in the current chemical fiber supply chain.
Price Center Shift and Range Dynamics
Looking at the annual price profile, the price range for polyester staple fiber over the past 12 months was from 6,267.17 yuan per ton to 8,426.02 yuan per ton. The current price is above the median of 7,346.6 yuan per ton but still nearly 893 yuan away from the peak. This indicates that while the price center has risen significantly from last year's lows, a breakout trend has not yet formed. The average annual price of 7,019.32 yuan per ton suggests that corporate profitability throughout the year has been unstable, with most periods hovering near cost lines.
Notably, the current price level of 7,532.75 yuan per ton, with a bottom differential of 1,265.58 yuan, shows that the market has largely absorbed the impact of previous overcapacity and low-price inventories. However, the top differential of -893.27 yuan serves as a warning that if demand fails to pick up, prices could fall again.
Deep Logic of Cost Transmission and Supply-Demand Imbalance
The core driver of this price increase is the upward shift in upstream raw material costs. PTA and monoethylene glycol, the direct raw materials for polyester staple fiber, have seen supply tighten and prices rise continuously since the second quarter, affected by international oil price volatility and maintenance shutdowns at some domestic plants. This has directly pushed up production costs for polyester staple fiber, forcing manufacturers to raise their quotes.
However, the cost-side push has not fully translated into actual transaction prices. Downstream weaving, home textile, and apparel companies are generally facing a shortage of orders, with the recovery rate of end-consumer markets falling short of expectations. This gives buyers an advantage in price negotiations, leading to clear resistance to high-priced goods. The shift from a positive to a negative daily price change is a direct manifestation of this supply-demand tug-of-war: cost support exists, but without effective demand-side coordination, price increases lack sustainability.
For small and medium-sized weaving enterprises in industrial clusters like Shengze, Keqiao, and Nantong, short-term price fluctuations increase the difficulty of inventory management. They are torn between missing low-price replenishment windows and taking over high-priced goods only to face falling finished product prices.
Short-Term Outlook and Operational Strategies
Overall, the polyester staple fiber market is expected to continue its narrow range-bound fluctuation in the short term. On one hand, upstream raw material costs are unlikely to fall sharply in the near term, providing bottom-line support for prices. On the other hand, the recovery of downstream orders will take time, and end demand is unlikely to be released in a concentrated manner in the short term. The momentum for prices to break out of the current range is insufficient, with prices expected to trade between 7,300 and 7,700 yuan per ton.
For all links in the supply chain, refined management and risk hedging will be the main themes in the coming period.