The average import price of cotton rose 6.2% month-on-month to $1,804/ton in June 2026, yet Brazilian cotton's import share plummeted 18 percentage points. This contrast signals that Chinese cotton buyers are voting with their wallets, abandoning sources with deteriorating cost performance for more attractive alternatives.
Import Volume and Price Dynamics
Customs data shows China imported 110,000 tons of cotton in June 2026, up 3 times year-on-year but down 2.7% month-on-month. First-half cumulative imports reached 935,000 tons, doubling year-on-year. The year-on-year surge is partly due to a low base—last June's import of 27,000 tons was the lowest monthly figure in 20 years due to tariff hikes. However, the month-on-month decline reflects mills' slower procurement during the off-season.
More notably, the average import price rose 6.2% month-on-month, with US cotton up 9.2%, Brazilian cotton up 3.3%, and Australian cotton bucking the trend with a 1.1% decline. Global new-crop inventory decline expectations and drought in US cotton-growing regions drove the external price rally. The domestic-foreign price spread remained around RMB 3,000/ton, supporting continued high import volumes.
Supply Structure Overhaul: Brazil Loses, Australia Gains
June saw a dramatic reshuffling of import sources. Brazilian cotton, though still the top source, saw imports plunge 32.2% month-on-month to 44,100 tons, with its share dropping from 58% to 40%. US cotton imports fell 28.1%, with share down 6 percentage points to 16%.
In contrast, Australian cotton arrivals surged 22 times month-on-month to 30,600 tons, pushing its share from under 1% to 28%. The key driver is price: Australian cotton averaged $1,927/ton, down 1.1%, while Brazilian and US cotton rose 3.3% and 9.2% respectively. Price-sensitive mills quickly adjusted procurement lists, favoring Australian cotton's cost advantage.
By trade mode, special customs supervision zone logistics goods remained the largest at 43,000 tons, but general trade's share rose 12 percentage points to 19%, indicating some firms are shifting to direct imports rather than relying on bonded flows.
Downstream Demand Recovery Feeds Through
June marked the start of overseas autumn-winter garment stocking. China's textile and apparel exports reached $29.27 billion, up 14.3% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year. Apparel exports grew 21% month-on-month, textiles 7.4%. Yarn and grey fabric orders rebounded, directly boosting cotton procurement.
However, export growth is primarily volume-driven, with limited price contribution. Mills face the double squeeze of rising raw material costs and constrained end-product pricing, explaining why imports show 'high volume but structural divergence'—firms actively seek price bargains to offset the inflation in US and Brazilian cotton.
Global Supply Outlook Raised, Uncertainty Ahead
The USDA July report raised 2026/27 global cotton production by 2.613 million tons, with Brazil, US, Turkey, and Central Asia expanding output. Ending stocks-to-use ratio rose to 58.4%. ABRAPA data confirms supply growth: Brazil exported 3.219 million tons in the first 11 months of the 2025/26 season, up 18.9% year-on-year, with June exports of 217,000 tons hitting a monthly high.
China remains Brazil's largest buyer, with annual purchases of 767,000 tons (24% of Brazil's exports). But the drop in China's import share means Brazil must find alternative markets like Bangladesh and Turkey to absorb rising output.