On July 28, the Shengze polyester filament market presented a complex price landscape. Despite overnight declines in international crude oil, major polyester plants kept their official quotes stable, but the room for negotiation in actual transactions has expanded significantly. FDY semi-dull specifications saw broad 50 yuan/ton cuts, while DTY and FDY bright series mostly held firm, reflecting a tug-of-war between falling oil costs and low polyester inventories.
Price Divergence and Cost Transmission
Specific data shows that for FDY semi-dull 50D/24F, producers including Shenghong Chemical, Taicang Shenjiu, and Shaoxing Tiansheng all cut prices by 50 yuan to 9,700 yuan/ton. Tongkun Group's 45D/24F also dropped 50 yuan to 9,900 yuan/ton. Notably, FDY semi-dull 100D/48F and 100D/72F saw more concentrated declines, with Tongxiang Tongkun and Xinfengming both cutting 50 yuan to the 8,900-9,000 yuan/ton range. However, fine-denier products like FDY semi-dull 40D/12F and 40D/72F held at 10,100-10,200 yuan/ton, indicating stronger resilience for high-end differentiated products.
DTY series also softened: Changshu Tehua's 75D/36F fell 50 yuan to 10,300 yuan/ton, Wuxi Hengchang's same spec dropped to 10,400 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu Kaile's 100D/36F declined to 9,900 yuan/ton. FDY bright series remained entirely flat, from 40D/24F at 10,700 yuan/ton to 300D/96F at 8,500 yuan/ton, reflecting the demand rigidity for bright yarns in specific applications.
Inventory vs. Expectations
Polyester plants' low filament inventories are the key support preventing a broader price collapse. However, falling international oil prices are eroding this buffer—downstream expectations of lower upstream polyester raw material costs have pushed water-jet, warp knitting, and texturing mills into a wait-and-see mode, preferring to consume their own stockpiles rather than restocking.
This destocking behavior means short-term demand is suppressed. Industry data shows loom utilization around Shengze remains high, but purchasing has shifted from 'buy-as-needed' to 'small quantities on demand,' with spot market volumes shrinking significantly. For polyester plants, low inventory is normally positive, but if downstream hesitation persists, inventory will begin to build, increasing price pressure.
Transmission to Regional Industrial Clusters
As a core raw material market for China's textile industry, Shengze polyester filament price movements quickly transmit to downstream fabric clusters. Water-jet mills in Wujiang, Tongxiang, Xiaoshan, and Shaoxing face a double squeeze: raw material costs are falling, but order prices are also under pressure. For conventional fabrics like imitation silk, polyester taffeta, and pongee that use FDY as primary raw material, lower feedstock may mean further easing in fabric quotes.
In contrast, DTY, as raw material for warp knitting and texturing, has more direct impact on sportswear and stretch fabrics. The current modest DTY price decline may offer a brief bargaining window for buyers of autumn fabric orders.
Short-term Outlook
Given current factors, polyester filament is likely to continue its weak adjustment phase. Further price declines are possible, but the magnitude may be limited. Key variables are the trajectory of international oil prices and the timing of downstream restocking. If oil stabilizes and downstream inventory is depleted, a concentrated procurement wave may emerge ahead of the traditional September peak season, potentially stabilizing prices.